The Prediction Markets

National Book Award for Poetry

Closes
Nov 18, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$6K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Exhibit G: Poems, Essays, and Photographs of Gaza 21%

Next is Tree of Knowledge at 12%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Exhibit G: Poems, Essays, and Photographs of Gaza
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exhibit G: Poems, Essays, and Photographs of Gaza
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$215
Trade this on Kalshi
Tree of Knowledge
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tree of Knowledge
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$215
Trade this on Kalshi
Hide
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hide
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$253
Trade this on Kalshi
Bramble
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bramble
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Still House in the Desert: An eco-contemplation
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Still House in the Desert: An eco-contemplation
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$215
Trade this on Kalshi
Horses
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Horses
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$415
Trade this on Kalshi
JOAN
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
JOAN
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$385
Trade this on Kalshi
Promise/Threat
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Promise/Threat
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$687
Trade this on Kalshi
The Bronze Arms
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Bronze Arms
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$414
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$215
Trade this on Kalshi
We
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
We
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$385
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: National Book Awards

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Exhibit G: Poems, Essays, and Photographs of Gaza
  • Tree of Knowledge
  • Hide

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "National Book Award for Poetry". Exhibit G: Poems, Essays, and Photographs of Gaza leads at 21%. Next is Tree of Knowledge at 12%. $6K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 18, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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