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What the markets expect
Chris Sale 99%
Next is Jacob Misiorowski at 96%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Chris Sale99%99%30¢ bid, — askpolled, 32s agoNo askChris Sale99%Kalshi 99%polled, 32s ago
Chris Sale
99%
99%
30¢ bid, — ask
polled, 32s ago
No ask
Chris Sale
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chris Sale
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- Volume
- $3K
Jacob Misiorowski96%96%96¢ bid, — askpolled, 32s agoNo askJacob Misiorowski96%Kalshi 96%polled, 32s ago
Jacob Misiorowski
96%
96%
96¢ bid, — ask
polled, 32s ago
No ask
Jacob Misiorowski
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jacob Misiorowski
- Last price
- 96%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 96¢
- Volume
- $240
Cristopher Sánchez87%87%59¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 32s ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Cristopher Sánchez87%Kalshi 87%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Cristopher Sánchez
87%
87%
59¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Cristopher Sánchez
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cristopher Sánchez
- Last price
- 87%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 59¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
- Volume
- $2K
Andrew Abbott49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 32s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Andrew Abbott49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Andrew Abbott
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Andrew Abbott
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Andrew Abbott
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Brandon Woodruff49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 32s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Brandon Woodruff49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Brandon Woodruff
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Brandon Woodruff
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brandon Woodruff
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Bryce Elder49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 32s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Bryce Elder49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Bryce Elder
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Bryce Elder
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bryce Elder
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Bubba Chandler49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 32s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Bubba Chandler49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Bubba Chandler
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Bubba Chandler
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bubba Chandler
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Cade Horton49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 32s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Cade Horton49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Cade Horton
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Cade Horton
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cade Horton
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Edward Cabrera49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 32s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Edward Cabrera49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Edward Cabrera
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Edward Cabrera
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Edward Cabrera
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Eury Pérez49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 32s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Eury Pérez49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Eury Pérez
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Eury Pérez
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Eury Pérez
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Show 19 more outcomesHide 19 outcomes
Hunter Greene49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 32s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Hunter Greene49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Hunter Greene
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Hunter Greene
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hunter Greene
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Kodai Senga49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 32s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Kodai Senga49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kodai Senga
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kodai Senga
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kodai Senga
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Kyle Harrison49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 32s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Kyle Harrison49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kyle Harrison
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kyle Harrison
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kyle Harrison
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Logan Webb49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 32s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Logan Webb49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Logan Webb
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Logan Webb
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Logan Webb
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Nick Lodolo49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 32s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Nick Lodolo49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Nick Lodolo
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Nick Lodolo
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nick Lodolo
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Nolan McLean49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 32s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Nolan McLean49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Nolan McLean
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Nolan McLean
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nolan McLean
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Robbie Ray49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 32s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Robbie Ray49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Robbie Ray
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Robbie Ray
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Robbie Ray
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Roki Sasaki49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 32s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Roki Sasaki49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Roki Sasaki
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Roki Sasaki
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Roki Sasaki
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Sandy Alcantara49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 32s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Sandy Alcantara49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Sandy Alcantara
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Sandy Alcantara
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sandy Alcantara
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Shota Imanaga49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 32s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Shota Imanaga49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Shota Imanaga
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Shota Imanaga
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Shota Imanaga
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Spencer Strider49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 32s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Spencer Strider49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Spencer Strider
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Spencer Strider
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Spencer Strider
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Tyler Glasnow49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 32s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Tyler Glasnow49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Tyler Glasnow
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Tyler Glasnow
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tyler Glasnow
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Chase Burns9%9%— bid, 25¢ askpolled, 32s ago25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Chase Burns9%Kalshi 9%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Chase Burns
9%
9%
— bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Chase Burns
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chase Burns
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $135
Shohei Ohtani6%6%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 32s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Shohei Ohtani6%Kalshi 6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Shohei Ohtani
6%
6%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Shohei Ohtani
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Shohei Ohtani
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $61
Paul Skenes5%5%— bid, 14¢ askpolled, 32s ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Paul Skenes5%Kalshi 5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Paul Skenes
5%
5%
— bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Paul Skenes
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Paul Skenes
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $83
Mason Miller4%4%— bid, 85¢ askpolled, 32s ago85¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $118 (1.18x)Mason Miller4%Kalshi 4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Mason Miller
4%
4%
— bid, 85¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
85¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Mason Miller
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mason Miller
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 85¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $118 (1.18x)
- Volume
- $1K
Zack Wheeler3%3%— bid, 21¢ askpolled, 32s ago21¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $476 (4.76x)Zack Wheeler3%Kalshi 3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Zack Wheeler
3%
3%
— bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
21¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Zack Wheeler
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Zack Wheeler
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
- Volume
- $141
Yoshinobu Yamamoto2%2%2¢ bid, 60¢ askpolled, 32s ago60¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $167 (1.67x)Yoshinobu Yamamoto2%Kalshi 2%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
2%
2%
2¢ bid, 60¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
60¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 60¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $167 (1.67x)
- Volume
- $4K
Jesús Luzardo1%1%— bid, 85¢ askpolled, 32s ago85¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $118 (1.18x)Jesús Luzardo1%Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Jesús Luzardo
1%
1%
— bid, 85¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
85¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Jesús Luzardo
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jesús Luzardo
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 85¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $118 (1.18x)
- Volume
- $1K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, the Governing League
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Chris Sale
- Jacob Misiorowski
- Cristopher Sánchez
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "National League Cy Young Finalists". Chris Sale leads at 99%. Next is Jacob Misiorowski at 96%. $13K has traded across 29 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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