The Prediction Markets

Natural gas price on Oct 23, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

Closes
Oct 23, 2026, in 23 hours
Traded
$11K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above $1.999 99.5%

Next is Above $2.099 at 99.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above $1.999
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 42s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $1.999
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.099
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 42s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.099
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.199
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 42s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.199
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.299
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 42s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.299
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.399
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 42s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.399
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.499
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 42s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.499
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.599
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 42s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.599
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.699
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 42s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.699
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.799
98.5%
Kalshi 98.5%polled, 42s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.799
Last price
98.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
97¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.899
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 42s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.899
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
96¢
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 30 more outcomes
Above $2.999
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.999
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3.099
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.099
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$649
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3.199
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.199
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3.299
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.299
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3.599
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.599
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3.699
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.699
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3.799
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.799
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3.399
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.399
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$801
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3.499
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.499
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3.899
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.899
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3.999
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.999
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.099
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.099
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.199
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.199
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.299
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.299
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.399
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.399
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.499
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.499
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.599
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.599
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.699
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.699
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.799
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.799
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.899
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.899
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.999
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.999
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.099
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.099
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.199
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.199
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.299
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.299
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.399
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.399
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.499
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.499
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.599
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.599
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.699
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.699
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.799
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.799
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.899
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.899
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Pyth - NATGAS

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $1.999
  • Above $2.099
  • Above $2.199

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Natural gas price on Oct 23, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?". Above $1.999 leads at 99.5%. Next is Above $2.099 at 99.5%. $11K has traded across 40 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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