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What the markets expect
Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez 59.3%
Next is Citlalli Rubí Huerta at 8.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez59.3%72.3%59.3% fair70.9¢ bid, 73.6¢ askpolled, 21s ago73.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $136 (1.36x)Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez59.3%Polymarket 72.3%(59.3% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 73.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $136 (1.36x)
Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez
59.3%
72.3%
59.3% fair
70.9¢ bid, 73.6¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
73.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $136 (1.36x)
Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez
59.3%
Polymarket 72.3%(59.3% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 73.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $136 (1.36x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez
- Last price
- 72.3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 59.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 73.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 70.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $136 (1.36x)
- Volume
- $3K
Citlalli Rubí Huerta8.6%10.5%8.6% fair1.2¢ bid, 19.7¢ askpolled, 21s ago19.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $508 (5.08x)Citlalli Rubí Huerta8.6%Polymarket 10.5%(8.6% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 19.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $508 (5.08x)
Citlalli Rubí Huerta
8.6%
10.5%
8.6% fair
1.2¢ bid, 19.7¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
19.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $508 (5.08x)
Citlalli Rubí Huerta
8.6%
Polymarket 10.5%(8.6% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 19.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $508 (5.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Citlalli Rubí Huerta
- Last price
- 10.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 8.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $508 (5.08x)
- Volume
- $391
Manuel Cota Jiménez7.7%9.4%7.7% fair0.4¢ bid, 18.3¢ askpolled, 21s ago18.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $546 (5.46x)Manuel Cota Jiménez7.7%Polymarket 9.4%(7.7% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 18.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $546 (5.46x)
Manuel Cota Jiménez
7.7%
9.4%
7.7% fair
0.4¢ bid, 18.3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
18.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $546 (5.46x)
Manuel Cota Jiménez
7.7%
Polymarket 9.4%(7.7% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 18.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $546 (5.46x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Manuel Cota Jiménez
- Last price
- 9.4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 7.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 18.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $546 (5.46x)
- Volume
- $506
Hilaria Domínguez Arvizu7.2%8.8%7.2% fair0.8¢ bid, 16.8¢ askpolled, 21s ago16.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $595 (5.95x)Hilaria Domínguez Arvizu7.2%Polymarket 8.8%(7.2% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 16.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $595 (5.95x)
Hilaria Domínguez Arvizu
7.2%
8.8%
7.2% fair
0.8¢ bid, 16.8¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
16.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $595 (5.95x)
Hilaria Domínguez Arvizu
7.2%
Polymarket 8.8%(7.2% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 16.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $595 (5.95x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Hilaria Domínguez Arvizu
- Last price
- 8.8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 7.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $595 (5.95x)
- Volume
- $864
Héctor Santana García4.4%5.4%4.4% fair1.7¢ bid, 9.1¢ askpolled, 21s ago9.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)Héctor Santana García4.4%Polymarket 5.4%(4.4% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Héctor Santana García
4.4%
5.4%
4.4% fair
1.7¢ bid, 9.1¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
9.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Héctor Santana García
4.4%
Polymarket 5.4%(4.4% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Héctor Santana García
- Last price
- 5.4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,099 (11.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Geraldine Ponce Méndez3.9%4.8%3.9% fair2.6¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 21s ago7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Geraldine Ponce Méndez3.9%Polymarket 4.8%(3.9% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Geraldine Ponce Méndez
3.9%
4.8%
3.9% fair
2.6¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Geraldine Ponce Méndez
3.9%
Polymarket 4.8%(3.9% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Geraldine Ponce Méndez
- Last price
- 4.8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $10K
Pavel Jarero Velázquez3.8%4.7%3.8% fair0.4¢ bid, 8.9¢ askpolled, 21s ago8.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)Pavel Jarero Velázquez3.8%Polymarket 4.7%(3.8% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Pavel Jarero Velázquez
3.8%
4.7%
3.8% fair
0.4¢ bid, 8.9¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
8.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Pavel Jarero Velázquez
3.8%
Polymarket 4.7%(3.8% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pavel Jarero Velázquez
- Last price
- 4.7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,124 (11.2x)
- Volume
- $472
Ivonne Sabrina Díaz2.2%2.7%0.5¢ bid, 4.9¢ askpolled, 21s ago4.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)Ivonne Sabrina Díaz2.2%Polymarket 2.7%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Ivonne Sabrina Díaz
2.2%
2.7%
0.5¢ bid, 4.9¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
4.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Ivonne Sabrina Díaz
2.2%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ivonne Sabrina Díaz
- Last price
- 2.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,041 (20.4x)
- Volume
- $466
Jesús Armando Vélez Macías0.4%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $12,500 (125x)Jesús Armando Vélez Macías0.4%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Jesús Armando Vélez Macías
0.4%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Jesús Armando Vélez Macías
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jesús Armando Vélez Macías
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $407
Gloria Núñez Sánchez0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)Gloria Núñez Sánchez0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Gloria Núñez Sánchez
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Gloria Núñez Sánchez
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gloria Núñez Sánchez
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $356
Show 12 more outcomesHide 12 outcomes
José Ramón Cambero Pérez0.3%0.4%0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)José Ramón Cambero Pérez0.3%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
José Ramón Cambero Pérez
0.3%
0.4%
0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
José Ramón Cambero Pérez
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- José Ramón Cambero Pérez
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $391
Julieta Mejía Ibáñez0.3%0.4%0.1¢ bid, 0.7¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $14,286 (143x)Julieta Mejía Ibáñez0.3%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Julieta Mejía Ibáñez
0.3%
0.4%
0.1¢ bid, 0.7¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Julieta Mejía Ibáñez
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Julieta Mejía Ibáñez
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $14,286 (143x)
- Volume
- $493
Gustavo Ayón Aguirre0.2%0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Gustavo Ayón Aguirre0.2%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Gustavo Ayón Aguirre
0.2%
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Gustavo Ayón Aguirre
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gustavo Ayón Aguirre
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $429
Ivideliza Reyes Hernández0.2%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)Ivideliza Reyes Hernández0.2%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Ivideliza Reyes Hernández
0.2%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Ivideliza Reyes Hernández
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ivideliza Reyes Hernández
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $525
Jorge Armando Ortiz Rodríguez0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Jorge Armando Ortiz Rodríguez0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Jorge Armando Ortiz Rodríguez
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Jorge Armando Ortiz Rodríguez
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jorge Armando Ortiz Rodríguez
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $3K
José Antonio Barajas López0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)José Antonio Barajas López0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
José Antonio Barajas López
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
José Antonio Barajas López
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- José Antonio Barajas López
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $445
Luis Zamora Carrillo0.2%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Luis Zamora Carrillo0.2%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Luis Zamora Carrillo
0.2%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Luis Zamora Carrillo
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Luis Zamora Carrillo
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $453
Nadia Ramírez López0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Nadia Ramírez López0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Nadia Ramírez López
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Nadia Ramírez López
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nadia Ramírez López
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $394
Paola Vargas Arciniega0.2%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Paola Vargas Arciniega0.2%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Paola Vargas Arciniega
0.2%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Paola Vargas Arciniega
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Paola Vargas Arciniega
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $370
Ignacio Flores Medina0.1%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Ignacio Flores Medina0.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Ignacio Flores Medina
0.1%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Ignacio Flores Medina
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ignacio Flores Medina
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $404
María Elizabeth López Blanco0.1%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)María Elizabeth López Blanco0.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
María Elizabeth López Blanco
0.1%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
María Elizabeth López Blanco
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- María Elizabeth López Blanco
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $385
Enrique Díaz López0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Enrique Díaz López0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Enrique Díaz López
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Enrique Díaz López
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Enrique Díaz López
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $366
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez
- Citlalli Rubí Huerta
- Manuel Cota Jiménez
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Nayarit Governor Election Winner". Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez leads at 59.3%. Next is Citlalli Rubí Huerta at 8.6%. $34K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 7, 2027.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nayarit on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Nayarit and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Nayarit and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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