The Prediction Markets

NBA: 2026-27 MVP

Closes
Jul 1, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$4.0M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Victor Wembanyama 21.2%

Next is Anthony Edwards at 10.4%. The venues differ most on Jayson Tatum (Polymarket 1.7%, Kalshi 6%), a 4.3-point gap.

Victor Wembanyama 21.2%Anthony Edwards 10.4%Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 9.8%Nikola Jokić 9.3%Luka Doncic 9.1%50 others 40.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Victor WembanyamaArb
21.2%
Polymarket 28.5%(21.8% fair)polled, 43s agoKalshi 32%(21% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Victor Wembanyama
Last price
28.5%
Fair, margin removed
21.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Victor Wembanyama
Last price
32%
Fair, margin removed
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$241K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 29¢ and selling on Kalshi at 31¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Anthony Edwards
10.4%
Polymarket 13.4%(10.3% fair)polled, 43s agoKalshi 16%(10.5% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthony Edwards
Last price
13.4%
Fair, margin removed
10.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anthony Edwards
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$373K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 14¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 14¢.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
9.8%
Polymarket 15.5%(11.9% fair)polled, 43s agoKalshi 14%(9.2% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Last price
15.5%
Fair, margin removed
11.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
9.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$212K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 15¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 15¢.

Nikola JokićArb
9.3%
Polymarket 15.5%(11.9% fair)polled, 43s agoKalshi 13%(8.5% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nikola Jokic
Last price
15.5%
Fair, margin removed
11.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nikola Jokić
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$223K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 13¢ and selling on Polymarket at 15¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Luka DoncicArb
9.1%
Polymarket 14.1%(10.8% fair)polled, 43s agoKalshi 13%(8.5% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luka Doncic
Last price
14.1%
Fair, margin removed
10.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.1¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$709 (7.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Luka Doncic
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$291K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 13¢ and selling on Polymarket at 14¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Giannis Antetokounmpo
3.7%
Polymarket 6.5%(4.9% fair)polled, 43s agoKalshi 5%(3.3% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Last price
6.5%
Fair, margin removed
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$281K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Jayson TatumArb
3.3%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 43s agoKalshi 6%(3.9% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jayson Tatum
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jayson Tatum
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$238K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 2.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 5¢ nets 270 bps before fees.

Cade Cunningham
1.9%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 43s agoKalshi 3%(2% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cade Cunningham
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cade Cunningham
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$144K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.2¢.

Jalen BrunsonArb
1.7%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 43s agoKalshi 3%(2% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jalen Brunson
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jalen Brunson
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$197K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 30 bps before fees.

Tyrese Maxey
1.6%
Polymarket 3.1%(2.3% fair)polled, 43s agoKalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tyrese Maxey
Last price
3.1%
Fair, margin removed
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tyrese Maxey
Last price
2%
Fair, margin removed
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$191K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Show 45 more outcomes
Kawhi LeonardArb
1.4%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 43s agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kawhi Leonard
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kawhi Leonard
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 2¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Jaylen Brown
1.2%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 43s agoKalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jaylen Brown
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jaylen Brown
Last price
2%
Fair, margin removed
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$175K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.9¢.

LeBron James
0.7%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 43s agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
LeBron James
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
LeBron James
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$387K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Tyrese Haliburton
0.7%
Polymarket 1%polled, 43s agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tyrese Haliburton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tyrese Haliburton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$190K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Amen Thompson
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amen Thompson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$267
Trade this on Kalshi
Chet Holmgren
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chet Holmgren
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$809
Trade this on Kalshi
Derrick White
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Derrick White
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dylan Harper
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dylan Harper
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ivica Zubac
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivica Zubac
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$143
Trade this on Kalshi
Jalen Green
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jalen Green
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jalen Williams
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jalen Williams
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Harden
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Harden
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$238
Trade this on Kalshi
Jaren Jackson Jr.
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$143
Trade this on Kalshi
Jarrett Allen
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jarrett Allen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$143
Trade this on Kalshi
Jimmy Butler
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jimmy Butler
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$143
Trade this on Kalshi
Julius Randle
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Julius Randle
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$143
Trade this on Kalshi
Kon Knueppel
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kon Knueppel
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$880
Trade this on Kalshi
Mikal Bridges
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mikal Bridges
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$143
Trade this on Kalshi
OG Anunoby
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
OG Anunoby
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper Flagg
0.6%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 43s agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper Flagg
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$989
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper Flagg
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$225K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Donovan Mitchell
0.6%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 43s agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donovan Mitchell
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Donovan Mitchell
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Stephen Curry
0.6%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 43s agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephen Curry
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen Curry
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$105K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Pascal Siakam
0.6%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pascal Siakam
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$143
Trade this on Kalshi
Paul George
0.6%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paul George
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stephon Castle
0.6%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stephon Castle
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$176
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie/Co-Winners
0.6%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie/Co-Winners
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$460
Trade this on Kalshi
Trae Young
0.6%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trae Young
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tyler Herro
0.6%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tyler Herro
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$269
Trade this on Kalshi
VJ Edgecombe
0.6%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
VJ Edgecombe
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alperen Sengun
0.5%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 43s agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alperen Sengun
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$349
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alperen Sengun
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Anthony Davis
0.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 43s agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthony Davis
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$126
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anthony Davis
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Austin Reaves
0.5%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 43s agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Austin Reaves
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$101
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Austin Reaves
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$321
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Deni Avdija
0.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 43s agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Deni Avdija
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Deni Avdija
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Devin Booker
0.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 43s agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Devin Booker
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Devin Booker
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$737
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Evan Mobley
0.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 43s agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Evan Mobley
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Evan Mobley
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$155
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Jalen Johnson
0.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 43s agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jalen Johnson
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jalen Johnson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$71K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Joel Embiid
0.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 43s agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joel Embiid
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$606
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Joel Embiid
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$116K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Karl-Anthony Towns
0.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 43s agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Karl-Anthony Towns
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Karl-Anthony Towns
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Kevin Durant
0.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 43s agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kevin Durant
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kevin Durant
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

LaMelo Ball
0.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 43s agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
LaMelo Ball
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$129
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
LaMelo Ball
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$134K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Paolo Banchero
0.5%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 43s agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paolo Banchero
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$156
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Paolo Banchero
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Scottie Barnes
0.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 43s agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scottie Barnes
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Scottie Barnes
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Zion Williamson
0.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 43s agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zion Williamson
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$157
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Zion Williamson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Jamal Murray
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 43s agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jamal Murray
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jamal Murray
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Bam Adebayo
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bam Adebayo
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$294
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Jayson Tatum on Polymarket at 2.3¢, sell on Kalshi at 5¢ (270 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League, ESPN
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).
  • Trading closes Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 30, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Victor Wembanyama
  • Anthony Edwards
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Live prices for Victor Wembanyama

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "NBA: 2026-27 MVP". Victor Wembanyama leads at 21.2%. Next is Anthony Edwards at 10.4%. $4.0M has traded across 55 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the Most Valuable Player (MVP) award for the 2026-27 NBA regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NBA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026-27 NBA regular season is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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