The Prediction Markets

NBA: 2026-27 Rookie of the Year

Closes
May 1, 2027, in 6 months
Traded
$9.4M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Cameron Boozer 22.3%

Next is Caleb Wilson at 18.2%. The venues differ most on Yaxel Lendeborg (Polymarket 10.6%, Kalshi 13%), a 2.5-point gap.

Cameron Boozer 22.3%Caleb Wilson 18.2%AJ Dybantsa 13.1%Darryn Peterson 12.7%Yaxel Lendeborg 10.5%26 others 23.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 47 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Cameron BoozerArb
22.3%
Polymarket 27.5%(24.5% fair)live, 29s agoKalshi 26%(21.3% fair)live, just nowBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cameron Boozer
Price
27.5%
Fair, margin removed
24.5%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cameron Boozer
Price
26%
Fair, margin removed
21.3%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$116K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 26¢ and selling on Polymarket at 27¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Caleb Wilson
18.2%
Polymarket 20%(17.8% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 22%(18% fair)polled, 41s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Caleb Wilson
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
17.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Caleb Wilson
Last price
22%
Fair, margin removed
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$188K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 21¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 21¢.

AJ DybantsaArb
13.1%
Polymarket 17%(15.2% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 15%(12.3% fair)polled, 41s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
AJ Dybantsa
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
15.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
AJ Dybantsa
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
12.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$95K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 15¢ and selling on Polymarket at 16¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Darryn Peterson
12.7%
Polymarket 15%(13.4% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 15%(12.3% fair)polled, 41s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Darryn Peterson
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
13.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Darryn Peterson
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
12.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$86K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 14¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 15¢.

Yaxel LendeborgArb
10.5%
Polymarket 10.6%(9.4% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 13%(10.6% fair)polled, 41s agoBest Yes 11.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $870 (8.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yaxel Lendeborg
Last price
10.6%
Fair, margin removed
9.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.5¢
Sell Yes
9.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$870 (8.70x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yaxel Lendeborg
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
10.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$222K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 11.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 13¢ nets 150 bps before fees.

Darius Acuff Jr.
7.5%
Polymarket 8.5%(7.6% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 9%(7.4% fair)polled, 41s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Darius Acuff Jr.
Last price
8.5%
Fair, margin removed
7.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Darius Acuff Jr.
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
7.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$148K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Keaton Wagler
2.2%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 41s agoKalshi 3%(2.5% fair)polled, 41s agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keaton Wagler
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Keaton Wagler
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$99K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.6¢.

Mikel Brown Jr.
1.6%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 41s agoKalshi 2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mikel Brown Jr.
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mikel Brown Jr.
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.7¢.

Aday Mara
1.5%
Polymarket 1%polled, 41s agoKalshi 2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aday Mara
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Aday Mara
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$147K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.7¢.

Brayden Burries
1.4%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 41s agoKalshi 2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brayden Burries
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brayden Burries
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$131K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Show 21 more outcomes
Labaron Philon Jr.
1.1%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Labaron Philon Jr.
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$324K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cameron Carr
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cameron Carr
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bennett Stirtz
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 41s agoKalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bennett Stirtz
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bennett Stirtz
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Sergio De Larrea
0.8%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sergio De Larrea
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tie/Co-Winners
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie/Co-Winners
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ebuka Okorie
0.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ebuka Okorie
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$2.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Morez Johnson Jr.
0.6%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 41s agoKalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Morez Johnson Jr.
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Morez Johnson Jr.
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Kingston Flemings
0.5%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 41s agoKalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kingston Flemings
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$285K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kingston Flemings
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Allen Graves
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Allen Graves
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$667K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hannes Steinbach
0.4%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 41s agoKalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hannes Steinbach
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hannes Steinbach
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Nate Ament
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 41s agoKalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nate Ament
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nate Ament
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Dailyn Swain
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 41s agoKalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dailyn Swain
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dailyn Swain
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$873
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Alex Karaban
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alex Karaban
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chris Cenac Jr.
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Cenac Jr.
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$481K
Trade this on Polymarket
Zuby Ejiofor
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zuby Ejiofor
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Christian Anderson
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christian Anderson
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$376K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jayden Quaintance
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jayden Quaintance
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$70K
Trade this on Polymarket
Joshua Jefferson
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joshua Jefferson
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$73K
Trade this on Polymarket
Karim López
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Karim López
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Koa Peat
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Koa Peat
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tarris Reed Jr.
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tarris Reed Jr.
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1.8M
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Yaxel Lendeborg on Polymarket at 11.5¢, sell on Kalshi at 13¢ (150 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League, ESPN
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).
  • Trading closes May 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jul 8, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Cameron Boozer
  • Caleb Wilson
  • AJ Dybantsa

Live prices for Cameron Boozer

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "NBA: 2026-27 Rookie of the Year". Cameron Boozer leads at 22.3%. Next is Caleb Wilson at 18.2%. $9.4M has traded across 31 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by May 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 NBA regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NBA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026-27 NBA regular season is cancelled, postponed after April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from NBA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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