The Prediction Markets

NBA: 2027 Western Conference Champion

Closes
Jul 1, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$1.5M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Oklahoma City 33.9%

Next is San Antonio at 31.1%. The venues differ most on Oklahoma City (Polymarket 34%, Kalshi 37%), a 3.0-point gap.

Oklahoma City 33.9%San Antonio 31.1%Minnesota 9.5%Los Angeles L 6.1%Denver 5.5%10 others 13.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 30 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Oklahoma CityArb
33.9%
Polymarket 34%(33.4% fair)live, just nowKalshi 37%(33.9% fair)live, just nowBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oklahoma City Thunder
Price
34%
Fair, margin removed
33.4%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Oklahoma City
Price
37%
Fair, margin removed
33.9%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 35¢ and selling on Kalshi at 36¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

San Antonio
31.1%
Polymarket 33.5%(32.9% fair)polled, 39s agoKalshi 33%(30.3% fair)polled, 39s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
San Antonio Spurs
Last price
33.5%
Fair, margin removed
32.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
San Antonio
Last price
33%
Fair, margin removed
30.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$62K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 33¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 33¢.

Minnesota
9.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 39s agoKalshi 10%(9.2% fair)polled, 39s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Minnesota Timberwolves
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Minnesota
Last price
10%
Fair, margin removed
9.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$252K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Los Angeles LArb
6.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 39s agoKalshi 7%(6.4% fair)polled, 39s agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Los Angeles Lakers
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Los Angeles L
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$127K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 5.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 6¢ nets 90 bps before fees.

Denver
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 39s agoKalshi 6%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Denver Nuggets
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Denver
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$48K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Houston
3.8%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 39s agoKalshi 4%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Houston Rockets
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Houston
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$191K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.8¢.

Portland
2.5%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 39s agoKalshi 3%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Portland Trail Blazers
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Portland
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$192K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Golden StateArb
1.7%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 39s agoKalshi 2%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Golden State Warriors
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Golden State
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$114K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 50 bps before fees.

Dallas
1%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 39s agoKalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dallas Mavericks
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dallas
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$159K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.5¢.

Phoenix
1%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 39s agoKalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Phoenix Suns
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Phoenix
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Show 5 more outcomes
UtahArb
1%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 39s agoKalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Utah Jazz
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Utah
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$68K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 1.2¢ nets 20 bps before fees.

Los Angeles C
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 39s agoKalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
LA Clippers
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Los Angeles C
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Memphis
0.7%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 39s agoKalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Memphis Grizzlies
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Memphis
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

New Orleans
0.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 39s agoKalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Orleans Pelicans
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
New Orleans
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Sacramento
0.6%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 39s agoKalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sacramento Kings
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sacramento
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Oklahoma City on Polymarket at 35¢, sell on Kalshi at 36¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Trading closes Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 29, 2029, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Oklahoma City
  • San Antonio
  • Minnesota

Live prices for Oklahoma City

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "NBA: 2027 Western Conference Champion". Oklahoma City leads at 33.9%. Next is San Antonio at 31.1%. $1.5M has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the Western Conference Finals for the 2027 NBA Playoffs. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2027 Western Conference Finals per the rules of NBA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2027 NBA season is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from NBA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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