The Prediction Markets

NC-09 House Election Winner

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$186K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Republican 75%

Next is Democratic at 25%. The venues differ most on Democratic (Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 24%), a 2.5-point gap.

Republican 75%Democratic 25%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Republican
75%
Polymarket 74%polled, 16s agoKalshi 75%(75.8% fair)polled, 16s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Richard Hudson (R)
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Richard Hudson
Last price
75%
Fair, margin removed
75.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 75¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 75¢.

DemocraticArb
25%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 16s agoKalshi 24%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Richard Ojeda (D)
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Richard Ojeda
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$77K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 25¢ and selling on Polymarket at 26¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Democratic on Kalshi at 25¢, sell on Polymarket at 26¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
  • Independents: Polymarket assigns a non-affiliated winner by stated caucus (House) or excludes independents from party options (Senate/Governor); Kalshi requires party membership.
  • Kalshi may close early on a media-consensus projection; Polymarket resolves on consensus calls with certification as the fallback.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: fec.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Library of Congress
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
  • Independents: Polymarket assigns a non-affiliated winner by stated caucus (House) or excludes independents from party options (Senate/Governor); Kalshi requires party membership.
  • Kalshi may close early on a media-consensus projection; Polymarket resolves on consensus calls with certification as the fallback.
  • Trading closes Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Republican
  • Democratic

Live prices for Republican

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Cover all 2 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "NC-09 House Election Winner". Republican leads at 75%. Next is Democratic at 25%. $186K has traded across 2 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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