The Prediction Markets

NCAA Football 2026 Mountain West Conference: Winner

Closes
Dec 19, 2026, in 57 days
Traded
$19K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

New Mexico Lobos 46.6%

Next is North Dakota State Bison at 29.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

New Mexico Lobos 46.6%North Dakota State Bison 29.2%Air Force Falcons 9.2%UNLV Rebels 8.9%Wyoming Cowboys 2%5 others 4.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
New Mexico Lobos
46.6%
Polymarket 49.5%(46.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Mexico Lobos
Last price
49.5%
Fair, margin removed
46.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
North Dakota State Bison
29.2%
Polymarket 31%(29.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
North Dakota State Bison
Last price
31%
Fair, margin removed
29.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Air Force Falcons
9.2%
Polymarket 9.8%(9.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $870 (8.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Air Force Falcons
Last price
9.8%
Fair, margin removed
9.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.5¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$870 (8.70x)
Volume
$668
Trade this on Polymarket
UNLV Rebels
8.9%
Polymarket 9.5%(8.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
UNLV Rebels
Last price
9.5%
Fair, margin removed
8.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Wyoming Cowboys
2%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wyoming Cowboys
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$137
Trade this on Polymarket
Northern Illinois Huskies
1.1%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Northern Illinois Huskies
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$84
Trade this on Polymarket
San José State Spartans
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
San José State Spartans
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$29
Trade this on Polymarket
UTEP Miners
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
UTEP Miners
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Polymarket
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$29
Trade this on Polymarket
Nevada Wolf Pack
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nevada Wolf Pack
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$141
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: themw.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • New Mexico Lobos
  • North Dakota State Bison
  • Air Force Falcons

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "NCAA Football 2026 Mountain West Conference: Winner". New Mexico Lobos leads at 46.6%. Next is North Dakota State Bison at 29.2%. $19K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 19, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Mountain West Football Championship Game, determining the champion of the Mountain West Conference for the 2026 college football season, currently scheduled for December 4, 2026. If this championship is postponed after December 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple teams are declared co-champions, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Mountain West Conference (https://themw.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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