The Prediction Markets

NCAA Football: Conference of Heisman Winner

Closes
Dec 27, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Big Ten 42.7%

Next is ACC at 27.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Big Ten 42.7%ACC 27.9%SEC 10%FBS Independents 5.6%American 4.3%6 others 9.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Big Ten
42.7%
Polymarket 49.5%(42.7% fair)polled, 26s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Big Ten
Last price
49.5%
Fair, margin removed
42.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
ACC
27.9%
Polymarket 32.4%(27.9% fair)polled, 26s agoBest Yes 38.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $257 (2.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
ACC
Last price
32.4%
Fair, margin removed
27.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38.9¢
Sell Yes
25.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$257 (2.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
SEC
10%
Polymarket 11.6%(10% fair)polled, 26s agoBest Yes 12.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $787 (7.87x)
Polymarket
Contract
SEC
Last price
11.6%
Fair, margin removed
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12.7¢
Sell Yes
10.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$787 (7.87x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
FBS Independents
5.6%
Polymarket 6.5%(5.6% fair)polled, 26s agoBest Yes 12.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $813 (8.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
FBS Independents
Last price
6.5%
Fair, margin removed
5.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12.3¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$813 (8.13x)
Volume
$628
Trade this on Polymarket
American
4.3%
Polymarket 5%(4.3% fair)polled, 26s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
American
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Sun Belt
3%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sun Belt
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$177
Trade this on Polymarket
Mountain West
1.8%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mountain West
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$257
Trade this on Polymarket
Pac-12
1.6%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pac-12
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$115
Trade this on Polymarket
Big 12
1.5%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Big 12
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$243
Trade this on Polymarket
Conference USA
1.4%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Conference USA
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$135
Trade this on Polymarket
MAC
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
MAC
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$133
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: heisman.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Big Ten
  • ACC
  • SEC

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "NCAA Football: Conference of Heisman Winner". Big Ten leads at 42.7%. Next is ACC at 27.9%. $13K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 27, 2026.

This market will resolve in favor of the conference affiliation of the player who wins the 2026 Heisman Trophy. The winner's conference is determined by the team the player competes for during the 2026 college football season at the time the award is presented. Players from independent programs (such as Notre Dame) are counted under the "FBS Independents" outcome unless that program is individually listed as an outcome. If official sources conflict on the winner's team or conference, resolution will follow the affiliation listed by the player's own school and the NCAA. If no 2026 Heisman Trophy is awarded by December 26, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from the Heisman Trophy Trust (https://www.heisman.com) and the NCAA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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