The Prediction Markets

NCAA Football: Conference to Win National Championship

Closes
TBD
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

SEC 28.1%

Next is Big Ten at 22.3%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

SEC 28.1%Big Ten 22.3%Sun Belt 10.2%ACC 9.2%FBS Independents 6.2%6 others 24%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
SEC
28.1%
Polymarket 36.5%(28.1% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
SEC
Last price
36.5%
Fair, margin removed
28.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$982
Trade this on Polymarket
Big Ten
22.3%
Polymarket 29%(22.3% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Big Ten
Last price
29%
Fair, margin removed
22.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sun Belt
10.2%
Polymarket 13.3%(10.2% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 26.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $379 (3.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sun Belt
Last price
13.3%
Fair, margin removed
10.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
26.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$379 (3.79x)
Volume
$69
Trade this on Polymarket
ACC
9.2%
Polymarket 12%(9.2% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
ACC
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
9.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$147
Trade this on Polymarket
FBS Independents
6.2%
Polymarket 8%(6.2% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
FBS Independents
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
6.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$126
Trade this on Polymarket
Mountain West
5.8%
Polymarket 7.6%(5.8% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mountain West
Last price
7.6%
Fair, margin removed
5.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Polymarket
Pac-12
5.7%
Polymarket 7.5%(5.7% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $671 (6.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pac-12
Last price
7.5%
Fair, margin removed
5.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$671 (6.71x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
American
5%
Polymarket 6.6%(5% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $763 (7.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
American
Last price
6.6%
Fair, margin removed
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
13.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$763 (7.63x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Big 12
3.3%
Polymarket 4.3%(3.3% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Big 12
Last price
4.3%
Fair, margin removed
3.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$506
Trade this on Polymarket
Conference USA
2.5%
Polymarket 3.2%(2.5% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Conference USA
Last price
3.2%
Fair, margin removed
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$69
Trade this on Polymarket
Mid-American
1.7%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mid-American
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: collegefootballplayoff.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • SEC
  • Big Ten
  • Sun Belt

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "NCAA Football: Conference to Win National Championship". SEC leads at 28.1%. Next is Big Ten at 22.3%. $5K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket.

This market resolves according to the conference affiliation of the team that wins the College Football Playoff National Championship for the 2026-27 season. The outcome corresponding to the conference of the championship-winning team will resolve "Yes"; all other outcomes will resolve "No". A team's conference is its official conference affiliation for football during the 2026-27 season, as recognized by the NCAA and the College Football Playoff. If the College Football Playoff National Championship for the 2026-27 season is canceled or not played such that no champion is crowned, this market will resolve "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from the College Football Playoff (https://collegefootballplayoff.com) and the NCAA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More sports markets

See all sports markets