The Prediction Markets

NCAA Tournament: Number of Rothstein “This is March” tweets

Closed
Apr 7, 2026
Traded
$46K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 7, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 199 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
81+
99.9%
Polymarket 100%polled, 4790 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
81+
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 199 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
71–80
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4790 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
71–80
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 199 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 81+
  • 71–80

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "NCAA Tournament: Number of Rothstein “This is March” tweets". 81+ last traded at 99.9%. Next is 71–80 at 0.1%. $46K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) mentions "This is March" in a tweet posted on X between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 7, 2026, 2:00 AM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts will count. Only posts live at the listed time will count toward the final tally. Deleted posts or posts that were reposted and later un-reposted will NOT count. Text posted in images, memes, video, or any attachments will not qualify towards the final count. Any plural or possessive forms of the listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: Th1s, for "this") will disqualify it from counting toward the final count. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: marchhh or mar., for ‘March’), will not count towards the final count, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. marchmadness mentions are not a compound word for "march"). Instances where both the quote and the quoted post contain the relevant phrase will qualify as one mention. (e.g., if John quotes a post which contains "This is March" with his own text containing "This is March", it will qualify as one mention.) If the relevant data is unavailable by April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be Jon Rothstein’s verified X account: @JonRothstein. Please note, only the @JonRothstein verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Jon Rothstein posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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