The Prediction Markets

NCAAM Conference Tournament Winner: Big Ten

Closed
Mar 16, 2026
Traded
$49K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 16, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 223 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Michigan
60.1%
Polymarket 59.5%(60.1% fair)polled, 5359 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michigan
Last price
59.5%
Fair, margin removed
60.1%
As of
Polled 223 d ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Polymarket
Purdue
39.9%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 5359 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Purdue
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 223 d ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$93
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Michigan
  • Purdue

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "NCAAM Conference Tournament Winner: Big Ten". Michigan last traded at 60.1%. Next is Purdue at 39.9%. $49K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 16, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the team that is officially determined as the winner of the 2026 Big Ten conference championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to win the 2026 Big Ten conference championship per the rules of the Big Ten (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a conference champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be official information from the National Collegiate Athletic Association (https://www.ncaa.com/sports/basketball-men/d1); however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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