The Prediction Markets

Nebraska Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$44K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Ricketts, 1+ pts 73%

Next is Ricketts, 3+ pts at 54%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ricketts, 1+ pts
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ricketts, 1+ pts
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ricketts, 3+ pts
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ricketts, 3+ pts
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ricketts, 6+ pts
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ricketts, 6+ pts
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-3%
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dan Osborn, 1+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Osborn, 1+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 3-6%
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 6-9%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ricketts, 9+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ricketts, 9+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Independent 3%+
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Independent 3%+
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Independent 0-3%
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Independent 0-3%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 13 more outcomes
Ricketts, 12+ pts
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ricketts, 12+ pts
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$563
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 9-12%
7.7%
Polymarket 7.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ricketts, 18+ pts
6.1%
Kalshi 6.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ricketts, 18+ pts
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Osborn, 12+ pts
5.1%
Kalshi 5.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Osborn, 12+ pts
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$184
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Osborn, 3+ pts
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Osborn, 3+ pts
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 18-21%
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 18-21%
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$709
Trade this on Polymarket
Ricketts, 15+ pts
4.4%
Kalshi 4.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ricketts, 15+ pts
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Osborn, 9+ pts
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Osborn, 9+ pts
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 21%+
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 21%+
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$394
Trade this on Polymarket
Ricketts, 21+ pts
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ricketts, 21+ pts
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-18%
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-18%
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$746
Trade this on Polymarket
Dan Osborn, 6+ pts
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Osborn, 6+ pts
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 12-15%
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12-15%
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$543
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Nebraska Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ricketts, 1+ pts
  • Ricketts, 3+ pts
  • Ricketts, 6+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Ricketts, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Nebraska Senate margin of victory". Ricketts, 1+ pts leads at 73%. Next is Ricketts, 3+ pts at 54%. $44K has traded across 23 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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