The Prediction Markets

Nebraska's 3rd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$38K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Smith, 36+ pts 90.1%

Next is Smith, 39+ pts at 85%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Smith, 36+ pts
90.1%
Kalshi 90.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smith, 36+ pts
Last price
90.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96.3¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$81
Trade this on Kalshi
Smith, 39+ pts
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smith, 39+ pts
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Smith, 42+ pts
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smith, 42+ pts
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Smith, 45+ pts
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smith, 45+ pts
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$621
Trade this on Kalshi
Smith, 48+ pts
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smith, 48+ pts
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$164
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 45-50%
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 45-50%
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Smith, 51+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smith, 51+ pts
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$31
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 40-45%
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40-45%
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 50-55%
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $510 (5.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 50-55%
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19.6¢
Sell Yes
15.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$510 (5.10x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Smith, 54+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smith, 54+ pts
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$129
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Republican 55-60%
13.9%
Polymarket 13.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $595 (5.95x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 55-60%
Last price
13.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16.8¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$595 (5.95x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35-40%
10.1%
Polymarket 10.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
10.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Smith, 60+ pts
6.9%
Kalshi 6.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smith, 60+ pts
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Smith, 57+ pts
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smith, 57+ pts
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-25%
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-25%
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 60-65%
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 60-65%
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-35%
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-35%
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 65%+
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 65%+
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$518
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Smith, 36+ pts
  • Smith, 39+ pts
  • Smith, 42+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Smith, 36+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Nebraska's 3rd District margin of victory". Smith, 36+ pts leads at 90.1%. Next is Smith, 39+ pts at 85%. $38K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets