The Prediction Markets

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$750K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 0.0% 98.2%

Next is Above 0.5% at 98%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 0.0%
98.2%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 97.5%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.0%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.0%
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.5%
98%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 97%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.5%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.5%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.0%
97.2%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 96.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.0%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.0%
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.5%
95%
Kalshi 94%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 96%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.5%
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.5%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.0%
93%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 96%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.0%
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$79K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.0%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.5%
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.5%
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$490
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.0%
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.0%
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.5%
87.3%
Kalshi 79%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 95.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.5%
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.5%
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.0%
80.8%
Kalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 95.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.0%
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.0%
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.5%
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.5%
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$130
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 18 more outcomes
Above 3.5%
62%
Kalshi 29%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 95%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.5%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.5%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.0%
53%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 95%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.0%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$92K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.0%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
2.1% to 2.5%
50.1%
Kalshi 50.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
2.1% to 2.5%
Last price
50.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65.9¢
Sell Yes
50.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.0%
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.0%
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$913
Trade this on Kalshi
1.6% to 2.0%
16.1%
Kalshi 16.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
1.6% to 2.0%
Last price
16.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
2.6% to 3.0%
14.6%
Kalshi 14.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $685 (6.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
2.6% to 3.0%
Last price
14.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14.6¢
Sell Yes
12.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$685 (6.85x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
1.1% to 1.5%
3.1%
Kalshi 3.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
1.1% to 1.5%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yes
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.1% to 0.5%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
0.1% to 0.5%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.0% or Below
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
0.0% or Below
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$49K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.1% to 4.5%
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.1% to 4.5%
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.6% to 1.0%
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
Contract
0.6% to 1.0%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.6% to 5.0%
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.6% to 5.0%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
6.1% or Above
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
6.1% or Above
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
3.1% to 3.5%
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
3.1% to 3.5%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Kalshi
3.6% to 4.0%
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
3.6% to 4.0%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.1% to 5.5%
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.1% to 5.5%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.6% to 6.0%
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.6% to 6.0%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bea.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 0.0%
  • Above 0.5%
  • Above 1.0%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 0.0% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Negative GDP growth in 2026?". Above 0.0% leads at 98.2%. Next is Above 0.5% at 98%. $750K has traded across 28 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 29, 2027.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More economics markets

See all economics markets