The Prediction Markets

Netflix (NFLX) closes week of Oct 19 at ___?

Closes
Oct 23, 2026, in 22 hours
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

60-$70 50.2%

Next is 70-$80 at 22.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

60-$70 50.2%70-$80 22.9%50-$60 16.6%80-$90 7.6%30 0.4%6 others 2.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
60-$70
50.2%
Polymarket 62.5%(50.2% fair)polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
60-$70
Last price
62.5%
Fair, margin removed
50.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Polymarket
70-$80
22.9%
Polymarket 28.5%(22.9% fair)polled, 16s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
70-$80
Last price
28.5%
Fair, margin removed
22.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Trade this on Polymarket
50-$60
16.6%
Polymarket 20.7%(16.6% fair)polled, 16s agoBest Yes 41.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $243 (2.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
50-$60
Last price
20.7%
Fair, margin removed
16.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$243 (2.43x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Polymarket
80-$90
7.6%
Polymarket 9.5%(7.6% fair)polled, 16s agoBest Yes 18.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $529 (5.29x)
Polymarket
Contract
80-$90
Last price
9.5%
Fair, margin removed
7.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$529 (5.29x)
Volume
$26
Trade this on Polymarket
30
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
30
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$635
Trade this on Polymarket
30-$40
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
30-$40
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$156
Trade this on Polymarket
40-$50
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
40-$50
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$156
Trade this on Polymarket
90-$100
0.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
90-$100
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
100-$110
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
100-$110
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$415
Trade this on Polymarket
110-$120
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
110-$120
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$403
Trade this on Polymarket
120
0.3%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
120
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$401
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 60-$70
  • 70-$80
  • 50-$60

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Netflix (NFLX) closes week of Oct 19 at ___?". 60-$70 leads at 50.2%. Next is 70-$80 at 22.9%. $2K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NFLX%2FUSD.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More culture markets

See all culture markets