Combined depth · both venues
Loading both order books…
What the markets expect
Jon Ossoff 27.3%
Next is Pete Buttigieg at 13%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Jon Ossoff27.3%17%3¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, just now27%22¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, 6 min ago27¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $370 (3.70x)Jon Ossoff27.3%Polymarket 32.5%polled, just nowPolymarket 17%polled, just nowKalshi 27%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Jon Ossoff
27.3%
17%
3¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, just now
27%
22¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
27¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Jon Ossoff
27.3%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, just nowPolymarket 17%polled, just nowKalshi 27%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jon Ossoff
- Last price
- 32.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
- Volume
- $7K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jon Ossoff
- Last price
- 17%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
- Volume
- $576
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jon Ossoff
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
- Volume
- $844
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 6 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 27¢ and selling on Polymarket at 32¢ nets 500 bps before fees.
Pete Buttigieg13%35.5%8¢ bid, 63¢ askpolled, just now6%4¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 6 min ago3.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)Pete Buttigieg13%Polymarket 2.1%polled, just nowPolymarket 35.5%polled, just nowKalshi 6%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Pete Buttigieg
13%
35.5%
8¢ bid, 63¢ ask
polled, just now
6%
4¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
3.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Pete Buttigieg
13%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, just nowPolymarket 35.5%polled, just nowKalshi 6%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pete Buttigieg
- Last price
- 2.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,703 (27.0x)
- Volume
- $440
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pete Buttigieg
- Last price
- 35.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 63¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $159 (1.59x)
- Volume
- $232
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pete Buttigieg
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $5
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 6 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 8¢ nets 200 bps before fees.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez11.3%19%18¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, just now18%14¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 6 min ago7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez11.3%Polymarket 4.1%polled, just nowPolymarket 19%polled, just nowKalshi 18%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
11.3%
19%
18¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, just now
18%
14¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
11.3%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, just nowPolymarket 19%polled, just nowKalshi 18%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Last price
- 4.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $613
Polymarket
- Contract
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $145
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $64
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 6 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 14¢ nets 700 bps before fees.
Raphael Warnock9.9%3.5%0.4¢ bid, 6.6¢ askpolled, just now4%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 6 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Raphael Warnock9.9%Polymarket 16%polled, just nowPolymarket 3.5%polled, just nowKalshi 4%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Raphael Warnock
9.9%
3.5%
0.4¢ bid, 6.6¢ ask
polled, just now
4%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Raphael Warnock
9.9%
Polymarket 16%polled, just nowPolymarket 3.5%polled, just nowKalshi 4%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Raphael Warnock
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $7K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Raphael Warnock
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,515 (15.2x)
- Volume
- $74
Kalshi
- Contract
- Raphael Warnock
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $255
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 6 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 15¢ nets 1100 bps before fees.
Gavin Newsom6.5%2.9%0.4¢ bid, 5.4¢ askpolled, just now11.5%10¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 6 min ago5.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)Gavin Newsom6.5%Polymarket 5%polled, just nowPolymarket 2.9%polled, just nowKalshi 11.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Gavin Newsom
6.5%
2.9%
0.4¢ bid, 5.4¢ ask
polled, just now
11.5%
10¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
5.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Gavin Newsom
6.5%
Polymarket 5%polled, just nowPolymarket 2.9%polled, just nowKalshi 11.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gavin Newsom
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,449 (14.5x)
- Volume
- $6K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gavin Newsom
- Last price
- 2.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,852 (18.5x)
- Volume
- $87
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gavin Newsom
- Last price
- 11.5%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 6 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 5.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 460 bps before fees.
Kamala Harris6.1%1.7%0.4¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, just now4.5%4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 6 min ago3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Kamala Harris6.1%Polymarket 12%polled, just nowPolymarket 1.7%polled, just nowKalshi 4.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kamala Harris
6.1%
1.7%
0.4¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, just now
4.5%
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kamala Harris
6.1%
Polymarket 12%polled, just nowPolymarket 1.7%polled, just nowKalshi 4.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Kamala Harris
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $11K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Kamala Harris
- Last price
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $71
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kamala Harris
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 6 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 11¢ nets 600 bps before fees.
Stephen A. Smith6%20%1¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Stephen A. Smith6%Polymarket 0.3%polled, just nowPolymarket 20%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Stephen A. Smith
6%
20%
1¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Stephen A. Smith
6%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, just nowPolymarket 20%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Stephen A. Smith
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $503
Polymarket
- Contract
- Stephen A. Smith
- Last price
- 20%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
- Volume
- $209
J.B. Pritzker5.6%3.2%1.4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)J.B. Pritzker5.6%Polymarket 6.7%polled, just nowPolymarket 3.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
J.B. Pritzker
5.6%
3.2%
1.4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
J.B. Pritzker
5.6%
Polymarket 6.7%polled, just nowPolymarket 3.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- J.B. Pritzker
- Last price
- 6.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $813 (8.13x)
- Volume
- $691
Polymarket
- Contract
- J.B. Pritzker
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $325
Bernie Sanders4.9%18.4%0.2¢ bid, 36.5¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed0.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $16,667 (167x)Bernie Sanders4.9%Polymarket 0.4%polled, just nowPolymarket 18.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Bernie Sanders
4.9%
18.4%
0.2¢ bid, 36.5¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
0.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Bernie Sanders
4.9%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, just nowPolymarket 18.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bernie Sanders
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $487
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bernie Sanders
- Last price
- 18.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 36.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $274 (2.74x)
- Volume
- $85
Andy Beshear4.3%8%7¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, just now4.5%4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 6 min ago0.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $14,286 (143x)Andy Beshear4.3%Polymarket 0.5%polled, just nowPolymarket 8%polled, just nowKalshi 4.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Andy Beshear
4.3%
8%
7¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, just now
4.5%
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
0.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Andy Beshear
4.3%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, just nowPolymarket 8%polled, just nowKalshi 4.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Andy Beshear
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $14,286 (143x)
- Volume
- $420
Polymarket
- Contract
- Andy Beshear
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $158
Kalshi
- Contract
- Andy Beshear
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 6 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4¢ nets 330 bps before fees.
Show 11 more outcomesHide 11 outcomes
Wes Moore3%3.3%0.5¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now1.5%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 6 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Wes Moore3%Polymarket 4.1%polled, just nowPolymarket 3.3%polled, just nowKalshi 1.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Wes Moore
3%
3.3%
0.5¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
1.5%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Wes Moore
3%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, just nowPolymarket 3.3%polled, just nowKalshi 1.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Wes Moore
- Last price
- 4.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $611
Polymarket
- Contract
- Wes Moore
- Last price
- 3.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $85
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wes Moore
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 6 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.
Josh Shapiro2.8%3.5%1¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, just now5.1%4¢ bid, 5.1¢ askpolled, 6 min ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Josh Shapiro2.8%Polymarket 0.2%polled, just nowPolymarket 3.5%polled, just nowKalshi 5.1%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Josh Shapiro
2.8%
3.5%
1¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, just now
5.1%
4¢ bid, 5.1¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Josh Shapiro
2.8%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, just nowPolymarket 3.5%polled, just nowKalshi 5.1%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Josh Shapiro
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $440
Polymarket
- Contract
- Josh Shapiro
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $670
Kalshi
- Contract
- Josh Shapiro
- Last price
- 5.1%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,961 (19.6x)
- Volume
- $20
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 6 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4¢ nets 380 bps before fees.
Cory Booker2.6%2.6%0.2¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed4.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)Cory Booker2.6%Polymarket 2.6%polled, just nowPolymarket 2.6%polled, just nowBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Cory Booker
2.6%
2.6%
0.2¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
4.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Cory Booker
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, just nowPolymarket 2.6%polled, just nowBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Cory Booker
- Last price
- 2.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,381 (23.8x)
- Volume
- $1K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Cory Booker
- Last price
- 2.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $91
Mark Kelly2.4%2.8%0.3¢ bid, 5.3¢ askpolled, just now2%1.7¢ bid, 2.1¢ askpolled, 6 min ago2.1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)Mark Kelly2.4%Polymarket 2.5%polled, just nowPolymarket 2.8%polled, just nowKalshi 2%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Mark Kelly
2.4%
2.8%
0.3¢ bid, 5.3¢ ask
polled, just now
2%
1.7¢ bid, 2.1¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
2.1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Mark Kelly
2.4%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, just nowPolymarket 2.8%polled, just nowKalshi 2%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Mark Kelly
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,273 (22.7x)
- Volume
- $947
Polymarket
- Contract
- Mark Kelly
- Last price
- 2.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,887 (18.9x)
- Volume
- $59
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mark Kelly
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,762 (47.6x)
- Volume
- $10
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 6 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.1¢.
James Talarico2%4.1%0.3¢ bid, 7.9¢ askpolled, just now1.7%1.3¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 6 min ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)James Talarico2%Polymarket 0.3%polled, just nowPolymarket 4.1%polled, just nowKalshi 1.7%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
James Talarico
2%
4.1%
0.3¢ bid, 7.9¢ ask
polled, just now
1.7%
1.3¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
James Talarico
2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, just nowPolymarket 4.1%polled, just nowKalshi 1.7%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- James Talarico
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $408
Polymarket
- Contract
- James Talarico
- Last price
- 4.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,266 (12.7x)
- Volume
- $71
Kalshi
- Contract
- James Talarico
- Last price
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 6 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1.3¢ nets 90 bps before fees.
Michelle Obama1.7%5.2%0.3¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Michelle Obama1.7%Polymarket 0.5%polled, just nowPolymarket 5.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Michelle Obama
1.7%
5.2%
0.3¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Michelle Obama
1.7%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, just nowPolymarket 5.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Michelle Obama
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $655
Polymarket
- Contract
- Michelle Obama
- Last price
- 5.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $124
Jon Stewart1.5%4%0.2¢ bid, 7.8¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed1.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)Jon Stewart1.5%Polymarket 0.7%polled, just nowPolymarket 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Jon Stewart
1.5%
4%
0.2¢ bid, 7.8¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
1.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Jon Stewart
1.5%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, just nowPolymarket 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jon Stewart
- Last price
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $9,091 (90.9x)
- Volume
- $1K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jon Stewart
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,282 (12.8x)
- Volume
- $74
Abdul El-Sayed1.5%Not listed1.5%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 6 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Abdul El-Sayed1.5%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Abdul El-Sayed
1.5%
Not listed
1.5%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Abdul El-Sayed
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Abdul El-Sayed
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Roy Cooper1.3%4.2%0.4¢ bid, 7.9¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed0.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $16,667 (167x)Roy Cooper1.3%Polymarket 0.4%polled, just nowPolymarket 4.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Roy Cooper
1.3%
4.2%
0.4¢ bid, 7.9¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
0.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Roy Cooper
1.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, just nowPolymarket 4.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Roy Cooper
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $353
Polymarket
- Contract
- Roy Cooper
- Last price
- 4.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,266 (12.7x)
- Volume
- $70
Ro Khanna1.2%3.2%0.3¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Ro Khanna1.2%Polymarket 0.6%polled, just nowPolymarket 3.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Ro Khanna
1.2%
3.2%
0.3¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Ro Khanna
1.2%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, just nowPolymarket 3.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ro Khanna
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $399
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ro Khanna
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $80
Rahm Emanuel0.9%2.8%0.5¢ bid, 5.1¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Rahm Emanuel0.9%Polymarket 0.3%polled, just nowPolymarket 2.8%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Rahm Emanuel
0.9%
2.8%
0.5¢ bid, 5.1¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Rahm Emanuel
0.9%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, just nowPolymarket 2.8%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rahm Emanuel
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $490
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rahm Emanuel
- Last price
- 2.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,961 (19.6x)
- Volume
- $87
Indicative gap, prices are 6 min old: Raphael Warnock asks 4¢ on Kalshi and bids 15¢ on Polymarket (1100 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads
Mostly the same bet: one difference
Where they differ
- Trading closes at different times: Jan 23, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Nevada Secretary of State, Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ
Show full rule comparisonHide full rule comparison
- Trading closes Jan 23, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Jon Ossoff
- Pete Buttigieg
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Live prices for Jon Ossoff
What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Open on Polymarket ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…Kalshi
Open on Kalshi ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Nevada Democratic presidential primary winner?". Jon Ossoff leads at 27.3%. Next is Pete Buttigieg at 13%. $45K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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