The Prediction Markets

Nevada Governor margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$62K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Ford, 1+ pts 58%

Next is Ford, 4+ pts at 34%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ford, 1+ pts
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ford, 1+ pts
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ford, 4+ pts
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ford, 4+ pts
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lombardo, 2+ pts
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lombardo, 2+ pts
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ford 0-3%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ford 0-3%
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ford 3-6%
18.2%
Polymarket 18.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 20.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $493 (4.93x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ford 3-6%
Last price
18.2%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
20.3¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$493 (4.93x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ford, 7+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ford, 7+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lombardo 0-3%
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lombardo 0-3%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lombardo 3-6%
16.9%
Polymarket 16.9%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lombardo 3-6%
Last price
16.9%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lombardo, 5+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lombardo, 5+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ford 6-9%
11.7%
Polymarket 11.7%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 12.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $820 (8.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ford 6-9%
Last price
11.7%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
12.2¢
Sell Yes
11.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$820 (8.20x)
Volume
$495
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Lombardo 6-9%
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lombardo 6-9%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lombardo, 8+ pts
9.8%
Kalshi 9.8%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lombardo, 8+ pts
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ford 12%+
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 10.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $990 (9.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ford 12%+
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
10.1¢
Sell Yes
5.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$990 (9.90x)
Volume
$411
Trade this on Polymarket
Lombardo, 11+ pts
7.6%
Kalshi 7.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lombardo, 11+ pts
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$646
Trade this on Kalshi
Lombardo, 14+ pts
6.4%
Kalshi 6.4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lombardo, 14+ pts
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Ford, 10+ pts
5.1%
Kalshi 5.1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ford, 10+ pts
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$153
Trade this on Kalshi
Ford 9-12%
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ford 9-12%
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$547
Trade this on Polymarket
Lombardo 12%+
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lombardo 12%+
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$449
Trade this on Polymarket
Lombardo 9-12%
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lombardo 9-12%
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$470
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ford, 1+ pts
  • Ford, 4+ pts
  • Lombardo, 2+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Ford, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Nevada Governor margin of victory". Ford, 1+ pts leads at 58%. Next is Ford, 4+ pts at 34%. $62K has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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