The Prediction Markets

Nevada's 1st District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$19K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Titus, 1+ pts 86%

Next is Titus, 4+ pts at 85%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Titus, 1+ pts
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Titus, 1+ pts
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Titus, 4+ pts
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Titus, 4+ pts
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$661
Trade this on Kalshi
Titus, 7+ pts
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Titus, 7+ pts
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$266
Trade this on Kalshi
Titus, 10+ pts
65.5%
Kalshi 65.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Titus, 10+ pts
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Titus, 13+ pts
51.5%
Kalshi 51.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Titus, 13+ pts
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Titus, 16+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Titus, 16+ pts
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Titus, 19+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Titus, 19+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$237
Trade this on Kalshi
Titus, 22+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Titus, 22+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
8.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$178
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Democrat 5-10%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-5%
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Volume
$327
Trade this on Polymarket
Titus, 25+ pts
5.1%
Kalshi 5.1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Titus, 25+ pts
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 5%+
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5%+
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$394
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-5%
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$582
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25%+
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25%+
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$152
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Titus, 1+ pts
  • Titus, 4+ pts
  • Titus, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Titus, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Nevada's 1st District margin of victory". Titus, 1+ pts leads at 86%. Next is Titus, 4+ pts at 85%. $19K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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