The Prediction Markets

Nevada's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$19K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Flippo, 1+ pts 63%

Next is Flippo, 4+ pts at 33%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Flippo, 1+ pts
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, just nowBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flippo, 1+ pts
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Flippo, 4+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, just nowBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flippo, 4+ pts
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
26.2%
Polymarket 26.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
26.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
20.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Flippo, 7+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flippo, 7+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 3-6%
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-3%
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $606 (6.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16.5¢
Sell Yes
16.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$606 (6.06x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 9-12%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$887
Trade this on Polymarket
Flippo, 10+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, just nowBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flippo, 10+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 6-9%
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 18%+
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 18%+
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$457
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Republican 12-15%
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12-15%
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Polymarket
Flippo, 13+ pts
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flippo, 13+ pts
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 3-6%
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$543
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6%+
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6%+
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Flippo, 16+ pts
3.4%
Kalshi 3.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 6.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flippo, 16+ pts
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-18%
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-18%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$313
Trade this on Polymarket
Flippo, 19+ pts
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flippo, 19+ pts
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$571
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Flippo, 1+ pts
  • Flippo, 4+ pts
  • Democrat 0-3%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Flippo, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Nevada's 2nd District margin of victory". Flippo, 1+ pts leads at 63%. Next is Flippo, 4+ pts at 33%. $19K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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