The Prediction Markets

Nevada's 3rd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Lee, 1+ pts 92.6%

Next is Lee, 3+ pts at 89%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Lee, 1+ pts
92.6%
Kalshi 92.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lee, 1+ pts
Last price
92.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94.3¢
Sell Yes
90.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lee, 3+ pts
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lee, 3+ pts
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94.2¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$782
Trade this on Kalshi
Lee, 6+ pts
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lee, 6+ pts
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93.4¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Lee, 9+ pts
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lee, 9+ pts
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$280
Trade this on Kalshi
Lee, 12+ pts
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lee, 12+ pts
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$551
Trade this on Kalshi
Lee, 15+ pts
43.5%
Kalshi 43.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lee, 15+ pts
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lee, 18+ pts
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lee, 18+ pts
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 5-10%
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Democrat 20-25%
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$858
Trade this on Polymarket
Lee, 21+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lee, 21+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
9.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$85
Trade this on Kalshi
Lee, 24+ pts
7.2%
Kalshi 7.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lee, 24+ pts
Last price
7.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25%+
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25%+
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$697
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-5%
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-5%
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$631
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5%+
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5%+
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$640
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Lee, 1+ pts
  • Lee, 3+ pts
  • Lee, 6+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Lee, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Nevada's 3rd District margin of victory". Lee, 1+ pts leads at 92.6%. Next is Lee, 3+ pts at 89%. $13K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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