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What the markets expect
Horsford, 1+ pts 91.5%
Next is Horsford, 4+ pts at 85%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 39 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Horsford, 1+ pts91.5%Not listed91.5%90.2¢ bid, 98.7¢ askpolled, 38 h ago98.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Horsford, 1+ pts91.5%Kalshi 91.5%polled, 38 h agoBest Yes 98.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Horsford, 1+ pts
91.5%
Not listed
91.5%
90.2¢ bid, 98.7¢ ask
polled, 38 h ago
98.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Horsford, 1+ pts
91.5%
Kalshi 91.5%polled, 38 h agoBest Yes 98.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Horsford, 1+ pts
- Last price
- 91.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 98.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 90.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $5K
Horsford, 4+ pts85%Not listed85%85¢ bid, 96.4¢ askpolled, 38 h ago96.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)Horsford, 4+ pts85%Kalshi 85%polled, 38 h agoBest Yes 96.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Horsford, 4+ pts
85%
Not listed
85%
85¢ bid, 96.4¢ ask
polled, 38 h ago
96.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Horsford, 4+ pts
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 38 h agoBest Yes 96.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Horsford, 4+ pts
- Last price
- 85%
- As of
- Polled 1 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 96.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 85¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
- Volume
- $181
Horsford, 7+ pts77%Not listed77%77¢ bid, 88¢ askpolled, 38 h ago88¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $114 (1.14x)Horsford, 7+ pts77%Kalshi 77%polled, 38 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Horsford, 7+ pts
77%
Not listed
77%
77¢ bid, 88¢ ask
polled, 38 h ago
88¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Horsford, 7+ pts
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 38 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Horsford, 7+ pts
- Last price
- 77%
- As of
- Polled 1 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- 77¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $625
Horsford, 10+ pts68%Not listed68%68¢ bid, 80¢ askpolled, 38 h ago80¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $125 (1.25x)Horsford, 10+ pts68%Kalshi 68%polled, 38 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Horsford, 10+ pts
68%
Not listed
68%
68¢ bid, 80¢ ask
polled, 38 h ago
80¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Horsford, 10+ pts
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 38 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Horsford, 10+ pts
- Last price
- 68%
- As of
- Polled 1 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 80¢
- Sell Yes
- 68¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $125 (1.25x)
- Volume
- $131
Horsford, 13+ pts61%Not listed61%56¢ bid, 66¢ askpolled, 38 h ago66¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $152 (1.52x)Horsford, 13+ pts61%Kalshi 61%polled, 38 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Horsford, 13+ pts
61%
Not listed
61%
56¢ bid, 66¢ ask
polled, 38 h ago
66¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Horsford, 13+ pts
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 38 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Horsford, 13+ pts
- Last price
- 61%
- As of
- Polled 1 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 66¢
- Sell Yes
- 56¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $152 (1.52x)
- Volume
- $5K
Horsford, 16+ pts44%Not listed44%42¢ bid, 54¢ askpolled, 38 h ago54¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $185 (1.85x)Horsford, 16+ pts44%Kalshi 44%polled, 38 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Horsford, 16+ pts
44%
Not listed
44%
42¢ bid, 54¢ ask
polled, 38 h ago
54¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Horsford, 16+ pts
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 38 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Horsford, 16+ pts
- Last price
- 44%
- As of
- Polled 1 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 54¢
- Sell Yes
- 42¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $185 (1.85x)
- Volume
- $242
Democrat 15-20%34.5%34.5%32¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, 39 h agoNot listed37¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $270 (2.70x)Democrat 15-20%34.5%Polymarket 34.5%polled, 39 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Democrat 15-20%
34.5%
34.5%
32¢ bid, 37¢ ask
polled, 39 h ago
Not listed
37¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Democrat 15-20%
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 39 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 15-20%
- Last price
- 34.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
- Volume
- $2K
Horsford, 19+ pts23%Not listed23%22¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 38 h ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Horsford, 19+ pts23%Kalshi 23%polled, 38 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Horsford, 19+ pts
23%
Not listed
23%
22¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 38 h ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Horsford, 19+ pts
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 38 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Horsford, 19+ pts
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled 1 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $2K
Horsford, 22+ pts19%Not listed19%16¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, 38 h ago28¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $357 (3.57x)Horsford, 22+ pts19%Kalshi 19%polled, 38 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Horsford, 22+ pts
19%
Not listed
19%
16¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, 38 h ago
28¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Horsford, 22+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 38 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Horsford, 22+ pts
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled 1 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
- Volume
- $15
Democrat 20-25%14.9%14.9%13.3¢ bid, 16.5¢ askpolled, 39 h agoNot listed16.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $606 (6.06x)Democrat 20-25%14.9%Polymarket 14.9%polled, 39 h agoBest Yes 16.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $606 (6.06x)
Democrat 20-25%
14.9%
14.9%
13.3¢ bid, 16.5¢ ask
polled, 39 h ago
Not listed
16.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $606 (6.06x)
Democrat 20-25%
14.9%
Polymarket 14.9%polled, 39 h agoBest Yes 16.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $606 (6.06x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 20-25%
- Last price
- 14.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 16.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 13.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $606 (6.06x)
- Volume
- $4K
Show 7 more outcomesHide 7 outcomes
Democrat 10-15%13.5%13.5%12¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 39 h agoNot listed15¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Democrat 10-15%13.5%Polymarket 13.5%polled, 39 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Democrat 10-15%
13.5%
13.5%
12¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 39 h ago
Not listed
15¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Democrat 10-15%
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 39 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 10-15%
- Last price
- 13.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $4K
Democrat 5-10%13%13%10¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 39 h agoNot listed16¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Democrat 5-10%13%Polymarket 13%polled, 39 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Democrat 5-10%
13%
13%
10¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 39 h ago
Not listed
16¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Democrat 5-10%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 39 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 5-10%
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 1 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $2K
Horsford, 25+ pts12%Not listed12%7.9¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 38 h ago18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Horsford, 25+ pts12%Kalshi 12%polled, 38 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Horsford, 25+ pts
12%
Not listed
12%
7.9¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 38 h ago
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Horsford, 25+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 38 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Horsford, 25+ pts
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled 1 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 7.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $181
Democrat 25%+11.2%11.2%7.4¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 39 h agoNot listed15¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Democrat 25%+11.2%Polymarket 11.2%polled, 39 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Democrat 25%+
11.2%
11.2%
7.4¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 39 h ago
Not listed
15¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Democrat 25%+
11.2%
Polymarket 11.2%polled, 39 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 25%+
- Last price
- 11.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 7.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $646
Democrat 0-5%7.1%7.1%4.3¢ bid, 9.8¢ askpolled, 39 h agoNot listed9.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)Democrat 0-5%7.1%Polymarket 7.1%polled, 39 h agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Democrat 0-5%
7.1%
7.1%
4.3¢ bid, 9.8¢ ask
polled, 39 h ago
Not listed
9.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Democrat 0-5%
7.1%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 39 h agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 0-5%
- Last price
- 7.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,020 (10.2x)
- Volume
- $1K
Republican 5%+1.9%1.9%0.5¢ bid, 3.3¢ askpolled, 39 h agoNot listed3.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)Republican 5%+1.9%Polymarket 1.9%polled, 39 h agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Republican 5%+
1.9%
1.9%
0.5¢ bid, 3.3¢ ask
polled, 39 h ago
Not listed
3.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Republican 5%+
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 39 h agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 5%+
- Last price
- 1.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,030 (30.3x)
- Volume
- $1K
Democrat 0-5%Polymarket: “Republican 0-5%”0.8%0.8%0.7¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 39 h agoNot listed0.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $12,500 (125x)Democrat 0-5%0.8%Polymarket 0.8%polled, 39 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Democrat 0-5%
Polymarket: “Republican 0-5%”
0.8%
0.8%
0.7¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 39 h ago
Not listed
0.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Democrat 0-5%
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 39 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 0-5%
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $548
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Horsford, 1+ pts
- Horsford, 4+ pts
- Horsford, 7+ pts
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Horsford, 1+ pts for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Nevada's 4th District margin of victory". Horsford, 1+ pts leads at 91.5%. Next is Horsford, 4+ pts at 85%. $29K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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