The Prediction Markets

New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary winner?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$15K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Democratic Party 75.5%

Next is Jon Ossoff at 24.4%. The venues differ most on Gavin Newsom (Polymarket 4.1%, Kalshi 13.5%), a 9.4-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 48 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Democratic Party
75.5%
Polymarket 75.5%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democratic Party
Last price
75.5%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jon Ossoff
24.4%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 27%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$736
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$139
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 9 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 21¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 24¢.

Republican Party
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Party
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
18.3%
Polymarket 19%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 18%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$728
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 9 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 17¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 20¢.

Rob Sand
16.8%
Polymarket 16.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 33.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $301 (3.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rob Sand
Last price
16.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
33.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$301 (3.01x)
Volume
$81
Trade this on Polymarket
Gavin Newsom
8.8%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 13.5%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$153
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 9 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 7.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 13¢ nets 510 bps before fees.

Pete Buttigieg
7.5%
Polymarket 8%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Buttigieg
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$580
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Buttigieg
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 9 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Andy Beshear
6.7%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andy Beshear
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$196
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andy Beshear
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 9 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 7¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Josh Shapiro
6.1%
Polymarket 7.3%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Shapiro
Last price
7.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$736
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Shapiro
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 9 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 6.1¢ nets 110 bps before fees.

Cory Booker
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cory Booker
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$119
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 14 more outcomes
Michelle Obama
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michelle Obama
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$124
Trade this on Polymarket
Stephen A. Smith
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephen A. Smith
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$218
Trade this on Polymarket
Rahm Emanuel
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rahm Emanuel
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Polymarket
Roy Cooper
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Roy Cooper
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$79
Trade this on Polymarket
Bernie Sanders
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bernie Sanders
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Polymarket
Raphael Warnock
3.6%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphael Warnock
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$83
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Raphael Warnock
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 9 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6.6¢.

Kamala Harris
3.3%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 9 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4.9¢ nets 190 bps before fees.

Ro Khanna
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ro Khanna
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$89
Trade this on Polymarket
Wes Moore
3%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wes Moore
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wes Moore
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 9 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

James Talarico
2.2%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Talarico
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 9 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.2¢.

Abdul El-Sayed
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abdul El-Sayed
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Kelly
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Kelly
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$68
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Kelly
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 9 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.3¢.

Jon Stewart
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jon Stewart
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$83
Trade this on Polymarket
J.B. Pritzker
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.B. Pritzker
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$334
Trade this on Polymarket

Indicative gap, prices are 9 min old: Gavin Newsom asks 7.9¢ on Polymarket and bids 13¢ on Kalshi (510 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 8, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: New Hampshire Secretary of State, Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 8, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Democratic Party
  • Jon Ossoff
  • Republican Party

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Democratic Party for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary winner?". Democratic Party leads at 75.5%. Next is Jon Ossoff at 24.4%. $15K has traded across 24 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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