The Prediction Markets

New Hampshire Governor margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Ayotte, 2+ pts 90.3%

Next is Ayotte, 5+ pts at 79%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ayotte, 2+ pts
90.3%
Kalshi 90.3%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 94.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ayotte, 2+ pts
Last price
90.3%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
94.3¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ayotte, 5+ pts
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ayotte, 5+ pts
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$368
Trade this on Kalshi
Ayotte, 8+ pts
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ayotte, 8+ pts
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ayotte, 11+ pts
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ayotte, 11+ pts
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ayotte 12-15%
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ayotte 12-15%
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ayotte, 14+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ayotte, 14+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ayotte 6-9%
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ayotte 6-9%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ayotte 9-12%
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ayotte 9-12%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ayotte 15-18%
10.6%
Polymarket 10.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ayotte 15-18%
Last price
10.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$574
Trade this on Polymarket
Ayotte 3-6%
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ayotte 3-6%
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$379
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Ayotte 18%+
10.1%
Polymarket 10.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $952 (9.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ayotte 18%+
Last price
10.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10.5¢
Sell Yes
9.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$952 (9.52x)
Volume
$329
Trade this on Polymarket
Ayotte, 20+ pts
9.8%
Kalshi 9.8%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ayotte, 20+ pts
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Ayotte, 17+ pts
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ayotte, 17+ pts
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
6.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$217
Trade this on Kalshi
Warmington, 1+ pts
6.1%
Kalshi 6.1%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Warmington, 1+ pts
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ayotte, 23+ pts
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ayotte, 23+ pts
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$780
Trade this on Kalshi
Ayotte 0-3%
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ayotte 0-3%
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$273
Trade this on Polymarket
Warmington 0-3%
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Warmington 0-3%
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$424
Trade this on Polymarket
Warmington 6%+
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Warmington 6%+
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$267
Trade this on Polymarket
Warmington 3-6%
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Warmington 3-6%
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ayotte, 2+ pts
  • Ayotte, 5+ pts
  • Ayotte, 8+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Ayotte, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Hampshire Governor margin of victory". Ayotte, 2+ pts leads at 90.3%. Next is Ayotte, 5+ pts at 79%. $24K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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