The Prediction Markets

New Hampshire Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$75K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Pappas, 2+ pts 88%

Next is Pappas, 4+ pts at 78%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Pappas, 2+ pts
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pappas, 2+ pts
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pappas, 4+ pts
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pappas, 4+ pts
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pappas, 6+ pts
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pappas, 6+ pts
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pappas, 7+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pappas, 7+ pts
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Pappas, 8+ pts
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pappas, 8+ pts
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pappas, 10+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pappas, 10+ pts
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pappas 6-9%
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pappas 6-9%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pappas, 12+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pappas, 12+ pts
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pappas 3-6%
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pappas 3-6%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pappas 9-12%
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pappas 9-12%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Pappas 12-15%
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pappas 12-15%
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$654
Trade this on Polymarket
Pappas, 14+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pappas, 14+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
Pappas 0-3%
10.3%
Polymarket 10.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $943 (9.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pappas 0-3%
Last price
10.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10.6¢
Sell Yes
9.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$943 (9.43x)
Volume
$720
Trade this on Polymarket
Pappas, 16+ pts
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pappas, 16+ pts
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$123
Trade this on Kalshi
Sununu 0-3%
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sununu 0-3%
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pappas, 18+ pts
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pappas, 18+ pts
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$166
Trade this on Kalshi
Sununu 3-6%
5.8%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sununu 3-6%
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Volume
$420
Trade this on Polymarket
Sununu 6%+
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sununu 6%+
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$567
Trade this on Polymarket
Pappas 18%+
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pappas 18%+
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$690
Trade this on Polymarket
Pappas 15-18%
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pappas 15-18%
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$509
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: New Hampshire Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Pappas, 2+ pts
  • Pappas, 4+ pts
  • Pappas, 6+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Pappas, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Hampshire Senate margin of victory". Pappas, 2+ pts leads at 88%. Next is Pappas, 4+ pts at 78%. $75K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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