The Prediction Markets

New Hampshire's 1st District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$41K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Shaheen, 1+ pts 94.8%

Next is Shaheen, 4+ pts at 83%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Shaheen, 1+ pts
94.8%
Kalshi 94.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 94.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shaheen, 1+ pts
Last price
94.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
94.9¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shaheen, 4+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shaheen, 4+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shaheen, 7+ pts
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shaheen, 7+ pts
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shaheen, 10+ pts
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shaheen, 10+ pts
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shaheen, 13+ pts
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shaheen, 13+ pts
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 10-15%
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
29.2%
Polymarket 29.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 37.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $269 (2.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
29.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
37.2¢
Sell Yes
21.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$269 (2.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Shaheen, 16+ pts
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shaheen, 16+ pts
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shaheen, 19+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shaheen, 19+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Shaheen, 22+ pts
9.4%
Kalshi 9.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shaheen, 22+ pts
Last price
9.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$81
Trade this on Kalshi
DiLorenzo, 2+ pts
5.3%
Kalshi 5.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
DiLorenzo, 2+ pts
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$940
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25%+
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25%+
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$959
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$592
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5%+
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5%+
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$632
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: New Hampshire Secretary of State, official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Shaheen, 1+ pts
  • Shaheen, 4+ pts
  • Shaheen, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Shaheen, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Hampshire's 1st District margin of victory". Shaheen, 1+ pts leads at 94.8%. Next is Shaheen, 4+ pts at 83%. $41K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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