The Prediction Markets

New Hampshire's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$36K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Goodlander, 1+ pts 91.8%

Next is Goodlander, 4+ pts at 90.2%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Goodlander, 1+ pts
91.8%
Kalshi 91.8%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 98.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Goodlander, 1+ pts
Last price
91.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.3¢
Sell Yes
91.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$101
Trade this on Kalshi
Goodlander, 4+ pts
90.2%
Kalshi 90.2%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 97.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Goodlander, 4+ pts
Last price
90.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.2¢
Sell Yes
90.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Goodlander, 7+ pts
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Goodlander, 7+ pts
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Goodlander, 10+ pts
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Goodlander, 10+ pts
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Goodlander, 13+ pts
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Goodlander, 13+ pts
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Goodlander, 16+ pts
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Goodlander, 16+ pts
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Goodlander, 19+ pts
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Goodlander, 19+ pts
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Goodlander, 22+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Goodlander, 22+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$588
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Democrat 10-15%
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$722
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-30%
13.1%
Polymarket 13.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $709 (7.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
13.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14.1¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$709 (7.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Goodlander, 25+ pts
9.8%
Kalshi 9.8%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Goodlander, 25+ pts
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
9.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$304
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30%+
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30%+
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$390
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$385
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$523
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: New Hampshire Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Goodlander, 1+ pts
  • Goodlander, 4+ pts
  • Goodlander, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Goodlander, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Hampshire's 2nd District margin of victory". Goodlander, 1+ pts leads at 91.8%. Next is Goodlander, 4+ pts at 90.2%. $36K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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