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What the markets expect
Above 3.8000 99%
Next is Above 3.7000 at 97%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above 3.800099%99%44¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 3.800099%Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Above 3.8000
99%
99%
44¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 3.8000
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3.8000
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 44¢
- Volume
- $23K
Above 3.700097%97%79¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 3.700097%Kalshi 97%polled, just now
Above 3.7000
97%
97%
79¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 3.7000
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3.7000
- Last price
- 97%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 79¢
- Volume
- $20K
Above 4.200083%83%10¢ bid, 83¢ askpolled, just now83¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $120 (1.20x)Above 4.200083%Kalshi 83%polled, just nowBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Above 4.2000
83%
83%
10¢ bid, 83¢ ask
polled, just now
83¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Above 4.2000
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, just nowBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2000
- Last price
- 83%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 83¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $120 (1.20x)
- Volume
- $22K
Above 3.900082%82%82¢ bid, 96¢ askpolled, just now96¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)Above 3.900082%Kalshi 82%polled, just nowBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Above 3.9000
82%
82%
82¢ bid, 96¢ ask
polled, just now
96¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Above 3.9000
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, just nowBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3.9000
- Last price
- 82%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 96¢
- Sell Yes
- 82¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
- Volume
- $34K
Above 4.000041%41%41¢ bid, 87¢ askpolled, just now87¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $115 (1.15x)Above 4.000041%Kalshi 41%polled, just nowBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Above 4.0000
41%
41%
41¢ bid, 87¢ ask
polled, just now
87¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Above 4.0000
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, just nowBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.0000
- Last price
- 41%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 87¢
- Sell Yes
- 41¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
- Volume
- $36K
Above 4.300038%38%5¢ bid, 54¢ askpolled, just now54¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $185 (1.85x)Above 4.300038%Kalshi 38%polled, just nowBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Above 4.3000
38%
38%
5¢ bid, 54¢ ask
polled, just now
54¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Above 4.3000
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, just nowBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.3000
- Last price
- 38%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 54¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $185 (1.85x)
- Volume
- $17K
Above 4.100032%32%10¢ bid, 76¢ askpolled, just now76¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $132 (1.32x)Above 4.100032%Kalshi 32%polled, just nowBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Above 4.1000
32%
32%
10¢ bid, 76¢ ask
polled, just now
76¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Above 4.1000
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, just nowBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.1000
- Last price
- 32%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 76¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $132 (1.32x)
- Volume
- $32K
Above 4.800032%32%— bid, 32¢ askpolled, just now32¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $313 (3.13x)Above 4.800032%Kalshi 32%polled, just nowBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Above 4.8000
32%
32%
— bid, 32¢ ask
polled, just now
32¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Above 4.8000
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, just nowBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.8000
- Last price
- 32%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $8K
Above 4.600028%28%11¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, just now28¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $357 (3.57x)Above 4.600028%Kalshi 28%polled, just nowBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Above 4.6000
28%
28%
11¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, just now
28¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Above 4.6000
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, just nowBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.6000
- Last price
- 28%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
- Volume
- $15K
Above 4.400019%19%— bid, 77¢ askpolled, just now77¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $130 (1.30x)Above 4.400019%Kalshi 19%polled, just nowBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Above 4.4000
19%
19%
— bid, 77¢ ask
polled, just now
77¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Above 4.4000
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, just nowBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.4000
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 77¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $130 (1.30x)
- Volume
- $17K
Show 4 more outcomesHide 4 outcomes
Above 4.50007%7%— bid, 10¢ askpolled, just now10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Above 4.50007%Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Above 4.5000
7%
7%
— bid, 10¢ ask
polled, just now
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Above 4.5000
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.5000
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $16K
Above 5.00004%4%— bid, 17¢ askpolled, just now17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Above 5.00004%Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Above 5.0000
4%
4%
— bid, 17¢ ask
polled, just now
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Above 5.0000
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 5.0000
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $7K
Above 4.70002%2%— bid, 52¢ askpolled, just now52¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $192 (1.92x)Above 4.70002%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Above 4.7000
2%
2%
— bid, 52¢ ask
polled, just now
52¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Above 4.7000
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.7000
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 52¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $192 (1.92x)
- Volume
- $12K
Above 4.90001%1%— bid, 25¢ askpolled, just now25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Above 4.90001%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Above 4.9000
1%
1%
— bid, 25¢ ask
polled, just now
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Above 4.9000
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.9000
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $5K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: AAA
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above 3.8000
- Above 3.7000
- Above 4.2000
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "New Jersey gas price at year-end 2026". Above 3.8000 leads at 99%. Next is Above 3.7000 at 97%. $263K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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