The Prediction Markets

New Jersey Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Booker, 9+ pts 97%

Next is Booker, 11+ pts at 95.4%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Booker, 9+ pts
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Booker, 9+ pts
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Kalshi
Booker, 11+ pts
95.4%
Kalshi 95.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Booker, 11+ pts
Last price
95.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95.4¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$444
Trade this on Kalshi
Booker, 13+ pts
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Booker, 13+ pts
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$522
Trade this on Kalshi
Booker, 15+ pts
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Booker, 15+ pts
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$406
Trade this on Kalshi
Booker, 17+ pts
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Booker, 17+ pts
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Booker, 19+ pts
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Booker, 19+ pts
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$452
Trade this on Kalshi
Booker, 21+ pts
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Booker, 21+ pts
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 21%+
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 21%+
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Booker, 23+ pts
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Booker, 23+ pts
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
Booker, 25+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Booker, 25+ pts
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$38
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 12 more outcomes
Booker, 27+ pts
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Booker, 27+ pts
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
Booker, 29+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Booker, 29+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$288
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 18-21%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 18-21%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-18%
12.3%
Polymarket 12.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-18%
Last price
12.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$969
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 12-15%
9.8%
Polymarket 9.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $862 (8.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12-15%
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11.6¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$862 (8.62x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Booker, 31+ pts
8.9%
Kalshi 8.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Booker, 31+ pts
Last price
8.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 9-12%
5.9%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
5.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-3%
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6-9%
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 3%+
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3%+
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 3-6%
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$838
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-3%
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Booker, 9+ pts
  • Booker, 11+ pts
  • Booker, 13+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Booker, 9+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Jersey Senate margin of victory". Booker, 9+ pts leads at 97%. Next is Booker, 11+ pts at 95.4%. $23K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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