The Prediction Markets

New Jersey's 10th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$15K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

McIver, 45+ pts 98.2%

Next is McIver, 48+ pts at 87.9%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
McIver, 45+ pts
98.2%
Kalshi 98.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
McIver, 45+ pts
Last price
98.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.2¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
McIver, 48+ pts
87.9%
Kalshi 87.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Kalshi
Contract
McIver, 48+ pts
Last price
87.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93.7¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Trade this on Kalshi
McIver, 51+ pts
81.5%
Kalshi 81.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
McIver, 51+ pts
Last price
81.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Trade this on Kalshi
McIver, 54+ pts
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
McIver, 54+ pts
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
McIver, 57+ pts
64.5%
Kalshi 64.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
McIver, 57+ pts
Last price
64.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
McIver, 60+ pts
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
McIver, 60+ pts
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$165
Trade this on Kalshi
McIver, 63+ pts
40.5%
Kalshi 40.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
McIver, 63+ pts
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 65-70%
37.7%
Polymarket 37.7%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 45.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $218 (2.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 65-70%
Last price
37.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45.9¢
Sell Yes
29.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$218 (2.18x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 60-65%
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 60-65%
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
McIver, 66+ pts
29.5%
Kalshi 29.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
McIver, 66+ pts
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Democrat 55-60%
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 55-60%
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
McIver, 69+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
McIver, 69+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$864
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 50-55%
12.3%
Polymarket 12.3%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 14.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $680 (6.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50-55%
Last price
12.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.7¢
Sell Yes
9.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$680 (6.80x)
Volume
$853
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35-45%
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 10.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $990 (9.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-45%
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$990 (9.90x)
Volume
$519
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 70-75%
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 70-75%
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45-50%
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-50%
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$728
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-35%
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-35%
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$458
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$477
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 75%+
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 75%+
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$456
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • McIver, 45+ pts
  • McIver, 48+ pts
  • McIver, 51+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list McIver, 45+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Jersey's 10th District margin of victory". McIver, 45+ pts leads at 98.2%. Next is McIver, 48+ pts at 87.9%. $15K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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