The Prediction Markets

New Jersey's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$26K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Drew, 1+ pts 67%

Next is Drew, 3+ pts at 60%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Drew, 1+ pts
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drew, 1+ pts
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Drew, 3+ pts
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drew, 3+ pts
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Drew, 6+ pts
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drew, 6+ pts
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Drew, 9+ pts
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drew, 9+ pts
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 3-6%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 12-15%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12-15%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mullock, 3+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mullock, 3+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
9.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 6-9%
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Drew, 12+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drew, 12+ pts
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$524
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 9-12%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Drew, 15+ pts
9.9%
Kalshi 9.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drew, 15+ pts
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Drew, 18+ pts
7.2%
Kalshi 7.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drew, 18+ pts
Last price
7.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$494
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-3%
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$279
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 18%+
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 18%+
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$221
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6%+
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6%+
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$323
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 3-6%
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$365
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-18%
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-18%
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Polymarket
Drew, 21+ pts
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drew, 21+ pts
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Drew, 1+ pts
  • Drew, 3+ pts
  • Drew, 6+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Drew, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Jersey's 2nd District margin of victory". Drew, 1+ pts leads at 67%. Next is Drew, 3+ pts at 60%. $26K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets