The Prediction Markets

New Jersey's 4th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$34K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Smith, 13+ pts 94.4%

Next is Smith, 16+ pts at 91.6%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Smith, 13+ pts
94.4%
Kalshi 94.4%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 99.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smith, 13+ pts
Last price
94.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.7¢
Sell Yes
90.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Smith, 16+ pts
91.6%
Kalshi 91.6%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 97.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smith, 16+ pts
Last price
91.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.2¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Smith, 19+ pts
82.5%
Kalshi 82.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smith, 19+ pts
Last price
82.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Smith, 22+ pts
70.5%
Kalshi 70.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smith, 22+ pts
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Smith, 25+ pts
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smith, 25+ pts
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$375
Trade this on Kalshi
Smith, 28+ pts
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smith, 28+ pts
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$301
Trade this on Kalshi
Smith, 31+ pts
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smith, 31+ pts
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$560
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 20-25%
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
21.2%
Polymarket 21.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 24.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $402 (4.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
21.2%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
24.9¢
Sell Yes
17.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$402 (4.02x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Smith, 34+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smith, 34+ pts
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
9.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$295
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Republican 25-30%
14.9%
Polymarket 14.9%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
14.9%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
12.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35-40%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-20%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 14.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $685 (6.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
14.6¢
Sell Yes
13.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$685 (6.85x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Smith, 37+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smith, 37+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$274
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-10%
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-10%
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-15%
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40%+
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40%+
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Smith, 13+ pts
  • Smith, 16+ pts
  • Smith, 19+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Smith, 13+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Jersey's 4th District margin of victory". Smith, 13+ pts leads at 94.4%. Next is Smith, 16+ pts at 91.6%. $34K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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