The Prediction Markets

New Jersey's 5th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$22K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Gottheimer, 4+ pts 94.9%

Next is Gottheimer, 7+ pts at 90%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Gottheimer, 4+ pts
94.9%
Kalshi 94.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gottheimer, 4+ pts
Last price
94.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.3¢
Sell Yes
91.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gottheimer, 7+ pts
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gottheimer, 7+ pts
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.3¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Gottheimer, 10+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gottheimer, 10+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94.6¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
Gottheimer, 13+ pts
79.5%
Kalshi 79.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gottheimer, 13+ pts
Last price
79.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gottheimer, 16+ pts
67.5%
Kalshi 67.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gottheimer, 16+ pts
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gottheimer, 19+ pts
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gottheimer, 19+ pts
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$39
Trade this on Kalshi
Gottheimer, 22+ pts
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gottheimer, 22+ pts
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gottheimer, 25+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gottheimer, 25+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$870
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Democrat 25-30%
19.6%
Polymarket 19.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $495 (4.95x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
19.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20.2¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$495 (4.95x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
12.7%
Polymarket 12.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $408 (4.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
12.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24.5¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$408 (4.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gottheimer, 28+ pts
9.2%
Kalshi 9.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gottheimer, 28+ pts
Last price
9.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
9.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$308
Trade this on Kalshi
Gottheimer, 34+ pts
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gottheimer, 34+ pts
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,031 (10.3x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Kalshi
Gottheimer, 31+ pts
6.9%
Kalshi 6.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gottheimer, 31+ pts
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30-35%
5.8%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$960
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35%+
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35%+
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$348
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Gottheimer, 4+ pts
  • Gottheimer, 7+ pts
  • Gottheimer, 10+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Gottheimer, 4+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Jersey's 5th District margin of victory". Gottheimer, 4+ pts leads at 94.9%. Next is Gottheimer, 7+ pts at 90%. $22K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets