The Prediction Markets

New Jersey's 7th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$26K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
12 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Bennett, 2+ pts 85%

Next is Bennett, 5+ pts at 75%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 12 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Bennett, 2+ pts
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bennett, 2+ pts
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bennett, 5+ pts
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bennett, 5+ pts
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$898
Trade this on Kalshi
Bennett, 8+ pts
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bennett, 8+ pts
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bennett, 11+ pts
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bennett, 11+ pts
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$357
Trade this on Kalshi
Bennett, 14+ pts
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bennett, 14+ pts
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$71
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
24.2%
Polymarket 24.2%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
24.2%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 3-6%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bennett, 17+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bennett, 17+ pts
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$81
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 6-9%
15.3%
Polymarket 15.3%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 17.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $571 (5.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
15.3%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
17.5¢
Sell Yes
13.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$571 (5.71x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 9-12%
11.8%
Polymarket 11.8%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 13.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $752 (7.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
11.8%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
13.3¢
Sell Yes
10.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$752 (7.52x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Bennett, 20+ pts
11.4%
Kalshi 11.4%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bennett, 20+ pts
Last price
11.4%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 6%+
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6%+
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$794
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 12-15%
9.1%
Polymarket 9.1%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 16.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $599 (5.99x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12-15%
Last price
9.1%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
16.7¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$599 (5.99x)
Volume
$609
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 3-6%
8.6%
Polymarket 8.6%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 16.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $610 (6.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
8.6%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
16.4¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$610 (6.10x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-18%
6.4%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 11.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $877 (8.77x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-18%
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
11.4¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$877 (8.77x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-3%
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 18%+
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 18%+
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$567
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bennett, 2+ pts
  • Bennett, 5+ pts
  • Bennett, 8+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Bennett, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Jersey's 7th District margin of victory". Bennett, 2+ pts leads at 85%. Next is Bennett, 5+ pts at 75%. $26K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets