The Prediction Markets

New Jersey's 9th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Pou, 2+ pts 91.8%

Next is Pou, 5+ pts at 83%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Pou, 2+ pts
91.8%
Kalshi 91.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pou, 2+ pts
Last price
91.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97.6¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Pou, 5+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pou, 5+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Pou, 8+ pts
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pou, 8+ pts
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pou, 11+ pts
59.5%
Kalshi 59.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pou, 11+ pts
Last price
59.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Pou, 14+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pou, 14+ pts
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$38
Trade this on Kalshi
Pou, 17+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pou, 17+ pts
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pou, 20+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pou, 20+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$286
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Democrat 10-15%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pou, 23+ pts
10.1%
Kalshi 10.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pou, 23+ pts
Last price
10.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Pou, 26+ pts
9.9%
Kalshi 9.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pou, 26+ pts
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican Wins
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$542
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$944
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30%+
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30%+
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$475
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-30%
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$385
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Pou, 2+ pts
  • Pou, 5+ pts
  • Pou, 8+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Pou, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Jersey's 9th District margin of victory". Pou, 2+ pts leads at 91.8%. Next is Pou, 5+ pts at 83%. $13K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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