The Prediction Markets

New Mexico Governor margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$15K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Haaland, 1+ pts 91.6%

Next is Haaland, 4+ pts at 91.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Haaland, 1+ pts
91.6%
Kalshi 91.6%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 91.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haaland, 1+ pts
Last price
91.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91.6¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$76
Trade this on Kalshi
Haaland, 4+ pts
91.5%
Kalshi 91.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 91.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haaland, 4+ pts
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91.6¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
Haaland, 7+ pts
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haaland, 7+ pts
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$548
Trade this on Kalshi
Haaland, 10+ pts
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haaland, 10+ pts
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Haaland, 13+ pts
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haaland, 13+ pts
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$486
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 10-15%
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Haaland, 16+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haaland, 16+ pts
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$469
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 5-10%
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Haaland, 19+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haaland, 19+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$301
Trade this on Kalshi
Haaland, 22+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haaland, 22+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$301
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Democrat 15-20%
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Haaland, 25+ pts
9.3%
Kalshi 9.3%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haaland, 25+ pts
Last price
9.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25%+
6.9%
Polymarket 6.9%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 13.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $763 (7.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25%+
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$763 (7.63x)
Volume
$424
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-5%
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$812
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-5%
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$467
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5%+
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5%+
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: New Mexico Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Haaland, 1+ pts
  • Haaland, 4+ pts
  • Haaland, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Haaland, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Mexico Governor margin of victory". Haaland, 1+ pts leads at 91.6%. Next is Haaland, 4+ pts at 91.5%. $15K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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