The Prediction Markets

New Mexico Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$20K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Luján, 9+ pts 96.2%

Next is Luján, 11+ pts at 95.2%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Luján, 9+ pts
96.2%
Kalshi 96.2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 96.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luján, 9+ pts
Last price
96.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.2¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$264
Trade this on Kalshi
Luján, 11+ pts
95.2%
Kalshi 95.2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 95.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luján, 11+ pts
Last price
95.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95.2¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$347
Trade this on Kalshi
Luján, 13+ pts
91.2%
Kalshi 91.2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 91.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luján, 13+ pts
Last price
91.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91.2¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$378
Trade this on Kalshi
Luján, 17+ pts
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luján, 17+ pts
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$582
Trade this on Kalshi
Luján, 15+ pts
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luján, 15+ pts
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$420
Trade this on Kalshi
Luján, 19+ pts
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luján, 19+ pts
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$325
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 21%+
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 21%+
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Luján, 21+ pts
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luján, 21+ pts
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Luján, 23+ pts
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luján, 23+ pts
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Luján, 25+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luján, 25+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 12 more outcomes
Democrat 18-21%
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 18-21%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Luján, 27+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luján, 27+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-18%
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-18%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$821
Trade this on Polymarket
Luján, 29+ pts
9.2%
Kalshi 9.2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luján, 29+ pts
Last price
9.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
8.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
Luján, 31+ pts
7.9%
Kalshi 7.9%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luján, 31+ pts
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 6-9%
6.6%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
6.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$867
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 12-15%
6.1%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12-15%
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$842
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 9-12%
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$343
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 3%+
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3%+
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$742
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 3-6%
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$472
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-3%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$332
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-3%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$313
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Luján, 9+ pts
  • Luján, 11+ pts
  • Luján, 13+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Luján, 9+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Mexico Senate margin of victory". Luján, 9+ pts leads at 96.2%. Next is Luján, 11+ pts at 95.2%. $20K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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