The Prediction Markets

New Mexico's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$32K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Vasquez, 1+ pts 86%

Next is Vasquez, 4+ pts at 77%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Vasquez, 1+ pts
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vasquez, 1+ pts
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$573
Trade this on Kalshi
Vasquez, 4+ pts
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vasquez, 4+ pts
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Vasquez, 7+ pts
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vasquez, 7+ pts
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$523
Trade this on Kalshi
Vasquez, 10+ pts
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vasquez, 10+ pts
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$917
Trade this on Kalshi
Vasquez, 13+ pts
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vasquez, 13+ pts
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Vasquez, 16+ pts
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vasquez, 16+ pts
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$880
Trade this on Kalshi
Vasquez, 19+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vasquez, 19+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
19.1%
Polymarket 19.1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 21.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $461 (4.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
19.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21.7¢
Sell Yes
16.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$461 (4.61x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Democrat 25%+
15.2%
Polymarket 15.2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 22.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $450 (4.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25%+
Last price
15.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22.2¢
Sell Yes
8.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$450 (4.50x)
Volume
$884
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vasquez, 22+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vasquez, 22+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$987
Trade this on Kalshi
Vasquez, 25+ pts
9.3%
Kalshi 9.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vasquez, 25+ pts
Last price
9.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$997
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-5%
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$945
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5%+
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5%+
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$732
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Vasquez, 1+ pts
  • Vasquez, 4+ pts
  • Vasquez, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Vasquez, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Mexico's 2nd District margin of victory". Vasquez, 1+ pts leads at 86%. Next is Vasquez, 4+ pts at 77%. $32K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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