The Prediction Markets

New Mexico's 3rd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$14K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Fernández, 6+ pts 89.5%

Next is Fernández, 9+ pts at 81.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Fernández, 6+ pts
89.5%
Kalshi 89.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 94.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fernández, 6+ pts
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94.9¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Fernández, 9+ pts
81.5%
Kalshi 81.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fernández, 9+ pts
Last price
81.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Fernández, 12+ pts
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fernández, 12+ pts
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$478
Trade this on Kalshi
Fernández, 15+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fernández, 15+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$810
Trade this on Kalshi
Fernández, 18+ pts
54.5%
Kalshi 54.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fernández, 18+ pts
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Fernández, 21+ pts
43.5%
Kalshi 43.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fernández, 21+ pts
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Fernández, 24+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fernández, 24+ pts
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fernández, 27+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fernández, 27+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Democrat 10-15%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 21.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $463 (4.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21.6¢
Sell Yes
17.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$463 (4.63x)
Volume
$704
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-30%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fernández, 30+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fernández, 30+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-5%
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35%+
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35%+
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$840
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$705
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$409
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Fernández, 6+ pts
  • Fernández, 9+ pts
  • Fernández, 12+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Fernández, 6+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Mexico's 3rd District margin of victory". Fernández, 6+ pts leads at 89.5%. Next is Fernández, 9+ pts at 81.5%. $14K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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