The Prediction Markets

New South Wales Legislative Council: Most Seats After Election

Closes
Mar 28, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$6K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Labor 65.8%

Next is Liberal–National at 19.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Labor 65.8%Liberal–National 19.2%Greens 4.7%Libertarian 4.2%One Nation 4.2%3 others 1.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Labor
65.8%
Polymarket 72%(65.8% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Labor
Last price
72%
Fair, margin removed
65.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Liberal–National
19.2%
Polymarket 21%(19.2% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Liberal–National
Last price
21%
Fair, margin removed
19.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Greens
4.7%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Greens
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$515
Trade this on Polymarket
Libertarian
4.2%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Libertarian
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$597
Trade this on Polymarket
One Nation
4.2%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
One Nation
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$283
Trade this on Polymarket
Animal Justice
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Animal Justice
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$322
Trade this on Polymarket
Legalise Cannabis
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Legalise Cannabis
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$320
Trade this on Polymarket
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$484
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Labor
  • Liberal–National
  • Greens

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New South Wales Legislative Council: Most Seats After Election". Labor leads at 65.8%. Next is Liberal–National at 19.2%. $6K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 28, 2027.

The 2027 New South Wales state election is currently scheduled to be held on March 27, 2027 to elect members of the 59th Parliament of New South Wales. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition holds the most seats in the Legislative Council (New South Wales' upper house) following the next New South Wales state election, including both members elected at this election and continuing members whose terms do not expire at this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats held by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties. Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats held in the Legislative Council following the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received in the Legislative Council election, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the New South Wales government, specifically the NSW Electoral Commission (NSWEC) (https://elections.nsw.gov.au/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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