The Prediction Markets

New Taipei mayoral election winner?

Closes
Nov 28, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$196K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
12 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Su Chiao-hui 55.7%

Next is Lee Shu-chuan at 44.3%. The venues differ most on Lee Shu-chuan (Polymarket 45%, Kalshi 44%), a 1.0-point gap.

Su Chiao-hui 55.7%Lee Shu-chuan 44.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 15 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Su Chiao-hui
55.7%
Polymarket 56%(55.4% fair)polled, 12 min agoKalshi 57%(56.4% fair)polled, 15 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Su Chiao-hui
Last price
56%
Fair, margin removed
55.4%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$83K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Su Chiao-hui
Last price
57%
Fair, margin removed
56.4%
As of
Polled 15 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Indicative only, prices are 15 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 57¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 57¢.

Lee Shu-chuan
44.3%
Polymarket 45%polled, 12 min agoKalshi 44%polled, 15 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lee Shu-chuan
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$65K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lee Shu-chuan
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 15 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Indicative only, prices are 15 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 44¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 45¢.

Huang Kuo-chang
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Huang Kuo-chang
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 29, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 28, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: db.cec.gov.tw
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Central Election Commission of Taiwan
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Nov 29, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 28, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Su Chiao-hui
  • Lee Shu-chuan
  • Huang Kuo-chang

Live prices for Su Chiao-hui

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Cover all 3 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Taipei mayoral election winner?". Su Chiao-hui leads at 55.7%. Next is Lee Shu-chuan at 44.3%. $196K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 28, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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