The Prediction Markets

New York 12 House General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 170K 95%

Next is Above 185K at 93%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 170K
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 170K
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 185K
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 185K
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 200K
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 200K
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$601
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 220K
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 220K
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 240K
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 240K
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$479
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 250K
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 250K
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 270K
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 270K
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 280K
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 280K
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 290K
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 290K
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 310K
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 310K
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 330K
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 330K
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: New York State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 170K
  • Above 185K
  • Above 200K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New York 12 House General Election: voter turnout". Above 170K leads at 95%. Next is Above 185K at 93%. $1K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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