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What the markets expect
Hellen Obiri 36.2%
Next is Gotytom Gebreslase at 8.7%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Hellen Obiri36.2%54%36.2% fair47¢ bid, 54¢ askpolled, just now54¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $185 (1.85x)Hellen Obiri36.2%Kalshi 54%(36.2% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Hellen Obiri
36.2%
54%
36.2% fair
47¢ bid, 54¢ ask
polled, just now
54¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Hellen Obiri
36.2%
Kalshi 54%(36.2% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hellen Obiri
- Last price
- 54%
- Fair, margin removed
- 36.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 54¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $185 (1.85x)
- Volume
- $1K
Gotytom Gebreslase8.7%13%8.7% fair5¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, just now13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Gotytom Gebreslase8.7%Kalshi 13%(8.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Gotytom Gebreslase
8.7%
13%
8.7% fair
5¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, just now
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Gotytom Gebreslase
8.7%
Kalshi 13%(8.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gotytom Gebreslase
- Last price
- 13%
- Fair, margin removed
- 8.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $79
Sheila Chepkirui5.7%8.5%5.7% fair4¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, just now13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Sheila Chepkirui5.7%Kalshi 8.5%(5.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Sheila Chepkirui
5.7%
8.5%
5.7% fair
4¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, just now
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Sheila Chepkirui
5.7%
Kalshi 8.5%(5.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sheila Chepkirui
- Last price
- 8.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Jessica McClain4%6%4% fair2¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Jessica McClain4%Kalshi 6%(4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Jessica McClain
4%
6%
4% fair
2¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Jessica McClain
4%
Kalshi 6%(4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jessica McClain
- Last price
- 6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $202
Viola Cheptoo3.7%5.5%3.7% fair1¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, just now10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Viola Cheptoo3.7%Kalshi 5.5%(3.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Viola Cheptoo
3.7%
5.5%
3.7% fair
1¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, just now
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Viola Cheptoo
3.7%
Kalshi 5.5%(3.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Viola Cheptoo
- Last price
- 5.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Weini Kelati3.4%5%3.4% fair5¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Weini Kelati3.4%Kalshi 5%(3.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Weini Kelati
3.4%
5%
3.4% fair
5¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Weini Kelati
3.4%
Kalshi 5%(3.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Weini Kelati
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $49
Edna Kiplagat2.7%4%2.7% fair2¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, just now9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Edna Kiplagat2.7%Kalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Edna Kiplagat
2.7%
4%
2.7% fair
2¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, just now
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Edna Kiplagat
2.7%
Kalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Edna Kiplagat
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $205
Fiona O'Keeffe2.7%4%2.7% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Fiona O'Keeffe2.7%Kalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Fiona O'Keeffe
2.7%
4%
2.7% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Fiona O'Keeffe
2.7%
Kalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fiona O'Keeffe
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $23
Sifan Hassan2.7%4%2.7% fair2¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Sifan Hassan2.7%Kalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Sifan Hassan
2.7%
4%
2.7% fair
2¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Sifan Hassan
2.7%
Kalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sifan Hassan
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $2K
Steph Bruce2.7%4%2.7% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Steph Bruce2.7%Kalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Steph Bruce
2.7%
4%
2.7% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Steph Bruce
2.7%
Kalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Steph Bruce
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $71
Show 21 more outcomesHide 21 outcomes
Alosha Southern1.4%2%1.3% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Alosha Southern1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Alosha Southern
1.4%
2%
1.3% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Alosha Southern
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alosha Southern
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Amanda Vestri1.4%2%1.3% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Amanda Vestri1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Amanda Vestri
1.4%
2%
1.3% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Amanda Vestri
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Amanda Vestri
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Brooke Starn1.4%2%1.3% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Brooke Starn1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Brooke Starn
1.4%
2%
1.3% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Brooke Starn
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brooke Starn
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Cailie Hughes1.4%2%1.3% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Cailie Hughes1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Cailie Hughes
1.4%
2%
1.3% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Cailie Hughes
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cailie Hughes
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Carrie Ellwood1.4%2%1.3% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Carrie Ellwood1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Carrie Ellwood
1.4%
2%
1.3% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Carrie Ellwood
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carrie Ellwood
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Erika Kemp1.4%2%1.3% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Erika Kemp1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Erika Kemp
1.4%
2%
1.3% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Erika Kemp
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Erika Kemp
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Fabienne Königstein1.4%2%1.3% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Fabienne Königstein1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Fabienne Königstein
1.4%
2%
1.3% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Fabienne Königstein
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fabienne Königstein
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Giovanna Epis1.4%2%1.3% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Giovanna Epis1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Giovanna Epis
1.4%
2%
1.3% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Giovanna Epis
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Giovanna Epis
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Julia Paternain1.3%2%1.3% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Julia Paternain1.3%Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Julia Paternain
1.3%
2%
1.3% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Julia Paternain
1.3%
Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Julia Paternain
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Keelah Barger1.3%2%1.3% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Keelah Barger1.3%Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Keelah Barger
1.3%
2%
1.3% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Keelah Barger
1.3%
Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Keelah Barger
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Lauren Hagans1.3%2%1.3% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Lauren Hagans1.3%Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Lauren Hagans
1.3%
2%
1.3% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Lauren Hagans
1.3%
Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lauren Hagans
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Maddie Block1.3%2%1.3% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Maddie Block1.3%Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Maddie Block
1.3%
2%
1.3% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Maddie Block
1.3%
Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maddie Block
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Megan O'Neil1.3%2%1.3% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Megan O'Neil1.3%Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Megan O'Neil
1.3%
2%
1.3% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Megan O'Neil
1.3%
Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Megan O'Neil
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Mercy Chelangat1.3%2%1.3% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Mercy Chelangat1.3%Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Mercy Chelangat
1.3%
2%
1.3% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Mercy Chelangat
1.3%
Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mercy Chelangat
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Mica Rivera Wood1.3%2%1.3% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Mica Rivera Wood1.3%Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Mica Rivera Wood
1.3%
2%
1.3% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Mica Rivera Wood
1.3%
Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mica Rivera Wood
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Monica Hebner1.3%2%1.3% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Monica Hebner1.3%Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Monica Hebner
1.3%
2%
1.3% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Monica Hebner
1.3%
Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Monica Hebner
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Paige Wood1.3%2%1.3% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Paige Wood1.3%Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Paige Wood
1.3%
2%
1.3% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Paige Wood
1.3%
Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Paige Wood
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Phily Bowden1.3%2%1.3% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Phily Bowden1.3%Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Phily Bowden
1.3%
2%
1.3% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Phily Bowden
1.3%
Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Phily Bowden
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Rie Kawauchi1.3%2%1.3% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Rie Kawauchi1.3%Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Rie Kawauchi
1.3%
2%
1.3% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Rie Kawauchi
1.3%
Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rie Kawauchi
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Roberta Groner1.3%2%1.3% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Roberta Groner1.3%Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Roberta Groner
1.3%
2%
1.3% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Roberta Groner
1.3%
Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Roberta Groner
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Annie Frisbie0.7%1%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Annie Frisbie0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Annie Frisbie
0.7%
1%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Annie Frisbie
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Annie Frisbie
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $610
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Wall Street Journal, New York Road Runners, ESPN
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Hellen Obiri
- Gotytom Gebreslase
- Sheila Chepkirui
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "New York City Marathon Women's Open Division Winner". Hellen Obiri leads at 36.2%. Next is Gotytom Gebreslase at 8.7%. $5K has traded across 31 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 16, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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