The Prediction Markets

New York Governor margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$53K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Hochul, 4+ pts 90.2%

Next is Hochul, 7+ pts at 83%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Hochul, 4+ pts
90.2%
Kalshi 90.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 92.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hochul, 4+ pts
Last price
90.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92.5¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hochul, 7+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hochul, 7+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hochul, 10+ pts
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hochul, 10+ pts
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hochul, 13+ pts
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hochul, 13+ pts
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hochul, 16+ pts
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hochul, 16+ pts
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hochul, 19+ pts
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hochul, 19+ pts
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hochul, 22+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hochul, 22+ pts
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$593
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Democrat 5-10%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-30%
11.4%
Polymarket 11.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $800 (8.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
11.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12.5¢
Sell Yes
10.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$800 (8.00x)
Volume
$322
Trade this on Polymarket
Hochul, 28+ pts
7.7%
Kalshi 7.7%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hochul, 28+ pts
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hochul, 25+ pts
7.1%
Kalshi 7.1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hochul, 25+ pts
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
7.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 35%+
6.6%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $943 (9.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35%+
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.6¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$943 (9.43x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
6.2%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $980 (9.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.2¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$980 (9.80x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$199
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$157
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: New York State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Hochul, 4+ pts
  • Hochul, 7+ pts
  • Hochul, 10+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Hochul, 4+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New York Governor margin of victory". Hochul, 4+ pts leads at 90.2%. Next is Hochul, 7+ pts at 83%. $53K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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