The Prediction Markets

New York's 10th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$15K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Lander, 57+ pts 91.2%

Next is Lander, 60+ pts at 87%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Lander, 57+ pts
91.2%
Kalshi 91.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lander, 57+ pts
Last price
91.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99.3¢
Sell Yes
91.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
Lander, 60+ pts
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lander, 60+ pts
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$156
Trade this on Kalshi
Lander, 63+ pts
81.5%
Kalshi 81.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lander, 63+ pts
Last price
81.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lander, 66+ pts
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lander, 66+ pts
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Lander, 69+ pts
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lander, 69+ pts
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$686
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 65-70%
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 65-70%
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 70-75%
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 70-75%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 60-65%
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 60-65%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lander, 72+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lander, 72+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$123
Trade this on Kalshi
Lander, 75+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lander, 75+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$522
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Democrat 85%+
7.8%
Polymarket 7.8%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 14.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $671 (6.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 85%+
Last price
7.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$671 (6.71x)
Volume
$390
Trade this on Polymarket
Lander, 81+ pts
6.1%
Kalshi 6.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lander, 81+ pts
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 75-80%
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 75-80%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 55-60%
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 55-60%
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$478
Trade this on Polymarket
Lander, 78+ pts
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lander, 78+ pts
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 80-85%
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 80-85%
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$546
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-45%
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-45%
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45-55%
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-55%
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$493
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$403
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Lander, 57+ pts
  • Lander, 60+ pts
  • Lander, 63+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Lander, 57+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New York's 10th District margin of victory". Lander, 57+ pts leads at 91.2%. Next is Lander, 60+ pts at 87%. $15K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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