The Prediction Markets

New York's 11th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Malliotakis, 6+ pts 77%

Next is Malliotakis, 9+ pts at 76%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Malliotakis, 6+ pts
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Malliotakis, 6+ pts
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Kalshi
Malliotakis, 9+ pts
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Malliotakis, 9+ pts
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Kalshi
Malliotakis, 12+ pts
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Malliotakis, 12+ pts
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$420
Trade this on Kalshi
Malliotakis, 15+ pts
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Malliotakis, 15+ pts
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$750
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-15%
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Malliotakis, 18+ pts
27.5%
Kalshi 27.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Malliotakis, 18+ pts
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Malliotakis, 21+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Malliotakis, 21+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 5-10%
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 18.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $529 (5.29x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18.9¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$529 (5.29x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Malliotakis, 27+ pts
8.4%
Kalshi 8.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Malliotakis, 27+ pts
Last price
8.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Malliotakis, 24+ pts
7.9%
Kalshi 7.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Malliotakis, 24+ pts
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Malliotakis, 30+ pts
5.6%
Kalshi 5.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Malliotakis, 30+ pts
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$130
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$779
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30%+
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30%+
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$837
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$702
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$943
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Malliotakis, 6+ pts
  • Malliotakis, 9+ pts
  • Malliotakis, 12+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Malliotakis, 6+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New York's 11th District margin of victory". Malliotakis, 6+ pts leads at 77%. Next is Malliotakis, 9+ pts at 76%. $17K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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