The Prediction Markets

New York's 13th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$34K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Chevalier, 58+ pts 93.8%

Next is Chevalier, 61+ pts at 93.1%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Chevalier, 58+ pts
93.8%
Kalshi 93.8%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 98.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chevalier, 58+ pts
Last price
93.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.5¢
Sell Yes
93.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Chevalier, 61+ pts
93.1%
Kalshi 93.1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 98.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chevalier, 61+ pts
Last price
93.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.4¢
Sell Yes
93.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Kalshi
Chevalier, 64+ pts
92.2%
Kalshi 92.2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 98.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chevalier, 64+ pts
Last price
92.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.4¢
Sell Yes
90.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Chevalier, 67+ pts
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 91.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chevalier, 67+ pts
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91.9¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Kalshi
Chevalier, 70+ pts
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chevalier, 70+ pts
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$897
Trade this on Kalshi
Chevalier, 73+ pts
43.5%
Kalshi 43.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chevalier, 73+ pts
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 70-75%
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 70-75%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 75-80%
30.7%
Polymarket 30.7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 75-80%
Last price
30.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
28.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chevalier, 76+ pts
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chevalier, 76+ pts
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$670
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 65-70%
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 65-70%
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Chevalier, 79+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chevalier, 79+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$570
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 60-65%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 60-65%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chevalier, 82+ pts
6.8%
Kalshi 6.8%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chevalier, 82+ pts
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 55-60%
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 55-60%
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 85%+
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 85%+
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-45%
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-45%
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 80-85%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 80-85%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45-55%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-55%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$751
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Chevalier, 58+ pts
  • Chevalier, 61+ pts
  • Chevalier, 64+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Chevalier, 58+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New York's 13th District margin of victory". Chevalier, 58+ pts leads at 93.8%. Next is Chevalier, 61+ pts at 93.1%. $34K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets