The Prediction Markets

New York's 15th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Torres, 52+ pts 95.4%

Next is Torres, 49+ pts at 93.2%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Torres, 52+ pts
95.4%
Kalshi 95.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Torres, 52+ pts
Last price
95.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99.3¢
Sell Yes
91.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Torres, 49+ pts
93.2%
Kalshi 93.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Torres, 49+ pts
Last price
93.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
93.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Torres, 55+ pts
92.8%
Kalshi 92.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 98.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Torres, 55+ pts
Last price
92.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
98.5¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Torres, 58+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Torres, 58+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Torres, 61+ pts
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Torres, 61+ pts
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Torres, 64+ pts
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Torres, 64+ pts
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 65-70%
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 65-70%
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 60-65%
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 60-65%
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 55-60%
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 55-60%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Torres, 67+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Torres, 67+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Democrat 70-75%
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 70-75%
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Torres, 70+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Torres, 70+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$145
Trade this on Kalshi
Torres, 73+ pts
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Torres, 73+ pts
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 50-55%
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50-55%
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$638
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 75%+
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 75%+
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35-45%
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-45%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-35%
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-35%
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45-50%
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-50%
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$519
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$326
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: New York State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Torres, 52+ pts
  • Torres, 49+ pts
  • Torres, 55+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Torres, 52+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New York's 15th District margin of victory". Torres, 52+ pts leads at 95.4%. Next is Torres, 49+ pts at 93.2%. $17K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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