The Prediction Markets

New York's 16th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Latimer, 32+ pts 93.1%

Next is Latimer, 35+ pts at 91.6%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Latimer, 32+ pts
93.1%
Kalshi 93.1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Latimer, 32+ pts
Last price
93.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.6¢
Sell Yes
93.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Latimer, 35+ pts
91.6%
Kalshi 91.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Latimer, 35+ pts
Last price
91.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.5¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$148
Trade this on Kalshi
Latimer, 38+ pts
88.8%
Kalshi 88.8%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 94.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Latimer, 38+ pts
Last price
88.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94.6¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Latimer, 41+ pts
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Latimer, 41+ pts
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Kalshi
Latimer, 44+ pts
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Latimer, 44+ pts
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$241
Trade this on Kalshi
Latimer, 47+ pts
53.5%
Kalshi 53.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Latimer, 47+ pts
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Latimer, 50+ pts
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Latimer, 50+ pts
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 50-55%
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50-55%
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Latimer, 53+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Latimer, 53+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 45-50%
15.6%
Polymarket 15.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-50%
Last price
15.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Democrat 30-35%
13.8%
Polymarket 13.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $394 (3.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
13.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25.4¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$394 (3.94x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Latimer, 56+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Latimer, 56+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$42
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 55-60%
12.2%
Polymarket 12.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $709 (7.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 55-60%
Last price
12.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14.1¢
Sell Yes
10.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$709 (7.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 40-45%
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 60%+
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 60%+
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35-40%
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-20%
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-20%
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$373
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-30%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-30%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$815
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$166
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Latimer, 32+ pts
  • Latimer, 35+ pts
  • Latimer, 38+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Latimer, 32+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New York's 16th District margin of victory". Latimer, 32+ pts leads at 93.1%. Next is Latimer, 35+ pts at 91.6%. $24K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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